**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not
be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**
The on-off-on taper talk is back on again. That didn't take long. The markets prepared for a Fed taper from April to August and the Fed decided not to taper at its meeting last week. Now we have James Bullard putting taper on the table for the October meeting. Speaking on Friday, Bullard said a small taper was possible and last week's vote not to taper was extremely close. Wednesday's intermarket reaction to the non-taper appears to have been a one-day wonder. Stocks were already in uptrends so I don't think the taper stuff affected the major index ETFs. Gold was in a downtrend, but surged with a big move on Wednesday. These gains have evaporated as gold fell back on Thursday-Friday and taper talk reared its ugly head. In addition to the taper seesaw, the markets could be jittery as a government shutdown looms. Barron's reports that political experts think a short-term government shutdown is assured. For clues on what happened in the past, look no further than August 2011 when the market went though some serious swings.
be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**
The on-off-on taper talk is back on again. That didn't take long. The markets prepared for a Fed taper from April to August and the Fed decided not to taper at its meeting last week. Now we have James Bullard putting taper on the table for the October meeting. Speaking on Friday, Bullard said a small taper was possible and last week's vote not to taper was extremely close. Wednesday's intermarket reaction to the non-taper appears to have been a one-day wonder. Stocks were already in uptrends so I don't think the taper stuff affected the major index ETFs. Gold was in a downtrend, but surged with a big move on Wednesday. These gains have evaporated as gold fell back on Thursday-Friday and taper talk reared its ugly head. In addition to the taper seesaw, the markets could be jittery as a government shutdown looms. Barron's reports that political experts think a short-term government shutdown is assured. For clues on what happened in the past, look no further than August 2011 when the market went though some serious swings.
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Key Reports and Events (all times Eastern):
Tue - Sep 24 - 09:00 - Case-Shiller 20-city Index
Tue - Sep 24 - 09:00 - FHFA Housing Price Index
Tue - Sep 24 - 10:00 - Consumer Confidence
Wed - Sep 25 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Wed - Sep 25 - 08:30 - Durable Goods Orders
Wed - Sep 25 - 10:00 - New Home Sales
Wed - Sep 25 - 10:30 - Crude Oil Inventories
Thu - Sep 26 - 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
Thu - Sep 26 - 08:30 - GDP
Thu - Sep 26 - 10:00 - Pending Home Sales
Thu - Sep 26 - 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories
Fri - Sep 27 - 08:30 - Personal & Spending
Fri - Sep 27 - 09:55 - Michigan Sentiment
Tue – Oct 15 - 09:00 – Debt Ceiling Deadline
Charts of Interest: Tuesday and Thursday
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is
the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions.
Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important
to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting
a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three
possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios
BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market
conditions and sector/industry performance.
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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