The Canadian Technician

$TSX @Tim Horton's, $SPX @ Red Bull

Greg Schnell

Greg Schnell

Chief Technical Analyst, Osprey Strategic

One of these things is not like the other. Looks like the Canadian market has been sitting in Tim Horton's for a coffee break, but the US market has been drinking Red Bull for the morning shot.

The charts below all have different number of dates. All the charts are 60 minute charts, but the number of days change.

$TSX 20130308


While the $SPX has rallied nicely, the $TSX has been stuck in a sideways pattern.


The $TSX is flat after 7 weeks while the $SPX has piled on 3.7%.

I think it is important that commodities get going here. The chart above shows the $TSX first reaching the 12820 level at the vertical blue line on January 22.  Today it tests this level again. 

Lets just review one of the major divergences in the $TSX and the $SPX in recent years. This is 2011. Basically, the $TSX was trying to rally to new highs, but could not. This divergence ended up being an important thing to note. The $SPX rallied on 2.9% higher as shown to the left of the vertical line. The problem was the $TSX or the "commodity currency" could not follow along.

$TSX 20110501

Below is how it worked out when commodities could not follow the US market higher.

$TSX 2011 7 month chart
We are watching for the commodities and the $TSX to turn higher. These charts illustrate why that is important. A commodities non confirmation is important. If the world does not need commodities, somethings amiss. So, I'm intently watching for commodities to get some love. 

In case you missed it. New SCU courses are available. Seattle, Toronto and NYC all have the new 2 different levels program with SCU 101 on day 1 and SCU 102 on the following day.

Have a great weekend.

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, MFTA is Chief Technical Analyst at Osprey Strategic specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Learn More