The Canadian Technician

$NATGAS Closes At 5 Month Highs


Natural Gas continues to find a lone direction. With oil having trouble finding support here at $92.50, $NATGAS is making 5 month highs. The discrepancy between oil and gas is still huge, but this push on Natural Gas is interesting. 

Check out this seasonality chart on $NATGAS. By the way, this is available on the Free Charts tab. Look for the seasonality area at the bottom.

Screen Shot 2013-11-27 at 5.26.28 PM

Let's compare the results to this year since July. 

July down hard, August and November soared, and Sept , Oct were relatively flat! This statistic does not talk about the size of the outperformance each month.

Let's look at the chart of $NATGAS.

$NATGAS 20131127

This chart shows the market in Natural Gas holding the price above $3.85 in the spring, finding resistance at the level through the summer and now pushing above the resistance level once again.

I visually scanned through the top SCTR rankings for energy stocks. They are falling out of the top technical rankings. Some interesting charts are starting to climb up near the 75 level. None of the major Canadian stocks are there yet. Suncor is an oil producer and looks more like a head/shoulders top pattern after visiting the 50 DMA for the fourth time in 2 months. CNQ.TO looks stronger, but the SCTR is still not in the top quartile.

You might want to start looking for Natural Gas/energy related stocks in the SCTR list. I think you'll find that the Natural Gas related plays are pushing higher. We'll have to see if they can break into the top echelon.

We are hosting the SCU 101 and SCU 102 charts in Vancouver in mid January. January 17th and 18th, 2014. I think one of the strongest learnings we have at the SCU courses is the issue that many people think they classes will not be at their level. The hedge fund managers and portfolio managers can't believe the number of tips that speed up their work flow. The site has so many new features being added every quarter that it helps to have someone explain how to use them.

I encourage you to enrol. Here is the link.  Vancouver!

If you are a Canadian CFA looking for CE Credits, the SCU 101 and SCU 102 classes qualify for you.  In New York and Dallas, I had fund managers tell me that they were so surprised how much more they could use. So invite your peers, invite your friends. It is going to be just before the Mining Show and we are working at organizing a CSTA event to be announced in the near future that will coincide with the timing. Watch CSTA.ORG for that announcement!

Good trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT

Announcement from the Author

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Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Greg is also the co-author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Greg joined in 2012 and has be instrumental in helping launch a variety of new blogs and other commentary platforms. Presently, Greg contributes market analysis commentary to The Canadian Technician, Commodities Countdown and Don't Ignore This Chart blogs. Learn More
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