Dow Theory. Is it drama? Is it the current reality? Perhaps distorted reality? I have given up on Dow Theory using $INDU as a timing tool. The start of Dow Theory was by Charles Dow and his interpretation was if the transports price action diverged from the industrial companies, we have a problem till resolved. Well, the game changed long ago on the Dow Industrials. Do we have a divergence? yes. We have a confirmation of a divergence. However the current name of the Dow Jones Industrials Average couldn't be more misleading. You won't find American Express (AXP), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Travelers Co, (TRV) and Visa (V) in the Industrials sector but you might find them in the financials. You won't find Disney (DIS), McDonalds (MCD), Walmart (WMT), Procter and Gamble (PG), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Home Depot (HD), Nike (NKE) and Coca-Cola (KO) in Industrials but you will find them in Consumer Cyclicals or Consumer Staples. Verizon (VZ) is best described as a telecom or a utility, not an Industrial. You might find UnitedHealth (UNH), Pfizer (PFE), and Merck (MRK) in Healthcare, not Industrials. I have always looked for Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) in Energy. Then we have stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), IBM (IBM), Cisco (CSCO) and Intel (INTC) that are Technology not Industrials. Good ol' Dupont (DD) is a Materials Company, not Industrials. That leaves me 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), General Electric (GE) and United Technologies (UTX) in Industrials.
So that leaves me 5 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) companies as real Industrials in the Industrial average. There is actually a Dow Jones Index for Industrials ($DJUSIN). There is also the Industrial SPDR ETF (XLI). Those are representative of Industrial companies so lets lose the $INDU as the representation of the Industrials and call those big 30 the Dow Too Big To Be Sold or something else. Now that we have that cleared up, let's get back to Dow Theory. The Transports have fallen below the 200 DMA.
