The January decline to date is gaining in importance; if prices remain at current to lower levels through the next six trading sessions – then a bearish 'key reversal month' will form. This would signal 'exhaustion' of the uptrend, with any and all rallies considered selling opportunities. The last such monthly formation signal was January-2002...with the decline of nearly 50% materializing from January's high at 2098 to October's low at 1108. Now, we don't necessarily believe the decline is going to be this dramatic at this time, but we simply want to illustrate that a substantial decline is a higher probability event...even more so if the 25-week moving average currently at 1834 level is violated.

Chip Anderson
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