20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Breaks Out to New All-Time Highs

Erin Swenlin

Erin Swenlin


This week's big winners were $GOLD and TLT, though the Dollar also did fairly well. Carl will be writing about these three (as well as Oil) in this week's edition of the "DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap" on (We would love to have you come see our website and sign up for our free email list). As I write the DP Alert daily edition and have been watching and writing about TLT for some time, I thought I would share my insight, given the very successful week and now the new all-time highs for TLT.

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It took many months for TLT to form a textbook falling wedge. These are bullish patterns and the expectation is for a breakout. The breakout was prefaced by a PMO BUY signal in oversold territory. Price broke out just as the 20-EMA was crossing above the 50-EMA, which generated an IT Trend Model BUY signal. The breakout rally stalled at the October top, but formed a symmetrical triangle which is a continuation pattern, meaning you should expect the trend that formed before to "continue." In this case, it was a rising trend. While I had expected the breakout, I didn't expect to see such a strong charge. Today, price popped above the August top on high volume. The PMO avoided a SELL signal and is now rising; it is moderately overbought and certainly has room to move higher before hitting overbought extremes.

Below is the weekly chart. We saw parabolic advance break down. While it could have fallen down to the consolidation zone from 2017-19, it managed to build support just above the 2016 high. The weekly PMO triggered a BUY signal this week, which also suggests higher prices.

The monthly chart accentuates a bull flag. The flagpole looks less parabolic on the monthly chart and the pullback formed the flag. We have broken out of it. The monthly PMO also looks very bullish, as it is rising strongly and is not overbought.

Conclusion: Today's breakout move looks great and the indicators are lining up to tell us we should continue to see strength here. The monthly chart does show that price is up against the top of a long-term rising trend channel, but momentum is very positive, which suggests to me that it will likely stay in that rising trend channel for some time to come. If you haven't seen our new website, I invite you to come check it out and sign up for our free email newsletter! You'll find free material and workshop links on the left-side of the "Blogs and Links" page.

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

Happy Charting! - Erin


Erin Swenlin will be presenting at the The MoneyShow Las Vegas May 11-13, 2020! You'll have an opportunity to meet Erin and discuss the latest DecisionPoint news and Diamond Scans. The conference is free to attend or view online!

Helpful DecisionPoint Links (Can Be Found on Links Page):

Erin's PMO Scan

DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)


SCTR Ranking


Erin Swenlin
About the author: is a co-founder of the website along with her father, Carl Swenlin. She launched the DecisionPoint daily blog in 2009 alongside Carl and now serves as a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor at Erin is an active Member of the CMT Association. She holds a Master's degree in Information Resource Management from the Air Force Institute of Technology as well as a Bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Southern California. Learn More