Dancing with the Trend

WHY Standard Deviation is a Poor Measure of Risk

by Greg Morris

I will attempt to show that high sigma is a much more frequent event than modern finance thinks it is.  A few examples using the Dow Industrials back to 1885 on a daily basis are shown.  Each begins with determining a look-back period to determine the average daily return and the standard deviation, and then a look-forward period is determined to see if the look-back data continues into the look-forward data.  Figure A is an attempt to help visualize this process.   A look-back period is determined (in-sample data) and a look-forward period is also determined Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Article Summaries - 3-2017 to 6-2017

by Greg Morris

Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles.  Why on Earth would I do this?  Primarily for two reasons.  One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles.  Two is that my articles are rarely tied to anything that is happening in the markets.  Generally, they are about experiences I have had as a technical analyst for almost 45 years; the good, the bad, and the ugly.  Click on the article title for a link to it. Wall of Worry – March 13, 2017 Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Top Five Investing Mistakes Made Preparing for Retirement

by Greg Morris

After 20 years in the money management business I saw these mistakes all too often.  Fortunately, this time, I’m not reciting the mistakes I have made in the past.  I certainly made some, but not these.  I’ll share those another time.   1 – The biggest and probably most common mistake is not beginning the process soon enough.  That doesn’t really sound like a pre-retirement mistake, but sadly when most folks start, it is too late.  It is difficult when young to think 40+ years down the road, but you must.  Prior to age 40 Read More