Don't Ignore This Chart!

TLT Touches The 200 MA

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The bond market has been selling off considerably. Now the TLT is sitting at horizontal support and touching the 200 MA. This is an important place to expect support for a trade to the long side. The risk / reward ratio can be very good by having a stop just under these levels. If TLT can not hold up here, this would mark a significant long-term trend change as it would trade below the 200 DMA.


I like trading stocks and ETF's with strong SCTR's. This does not have that setup currently. At this point, this is a pattern-based trade at support. As long as this trades north of the 200 DMA this would be a continuation trade. Should support fail, this would be a significant trend change for the bond market. With so many trend lines breaking on different asset classes, watch this trade carefully for more clues in the intermarket puzzle.

I presented a very detailed intermarket picture on the webinar yesterday including indexes. Commodities Countdown 2016-10-13 Webinar. Click on the link for a high level skim and the links into the actual webinar recording. I would encourage you to check out the webinar. There are lots of changing trends right now.

Have a good weekend,
Greg Schnell,  CMT, MFTA.

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Learn More
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