Don't Ignore This Chart!

Pressure Continues to Build For Global Markets

Julius de Kempenaer

Julius de Kempenaer

Senior Technical Analyst,

Over the past few weeks, I have been pointing out conflicting rotations for sectors on Relative Rotation Graphs, the negative divergence between RSI and SPY and a few more arguments that signal caution.With regard to the S&P, that has not paid off.... yet. The US stock market, more specifically the S&P 500 kept creeping higher recently -- much to my, and many others', frustration.

However, if you take a step back and take a look at the big(ger) picture -- which, by the way, is exactly what Relative Rotation Graphs help you to do -- a case can be made that the US/SPY is the odd one out. An important one, obviously, as the US market is the biggest chunk in every global index.

The benchmark for this RRG is the DJ Global index and, although the list of indexes on the plot does not completely cover the members of the benchmark, we can clearly see the concentration of markets inside the red, lagging quadrant as well as the dominant-negative RRG-Heading.

Most of these markets are showing quite weak charts, many of them in combination with a strong negative divergence between price and RSI, as well as MACD/PPO.

The chart at the top of this article is the Dow Jones Global index, and the divergence that is showing up on this chart is getting stronger by the week and has already been building up since the start of the year.

Now, a negative divergence by itself is not enough to pull the trigger. An "event" on the price chart is needed to make that divergence meaningful. And, for the global stock market index, I am looking at a break below the 20-week MA which is at the moment coinciding with a rising support line around 550.

With the US inside the leading quadrant at a very short tail, it certainly looks like the US is holding up the world. The question is, for how long?

There are a few more interesting tails on this RRG which I am planning to discuss in my ChartWatchers article this upcoming weekend.

#StaySafe, --Julius

My regular blog is the RRG Charts blog. If you would like to receive a notification when a new article is published there, "Subscribe" with your email address.

Julius de Kempenaer
Senior Technical Analyst,
CreatorRelative Rotation Graphs
FounderRRG Research
Host ofSector Spotlight

Please find my handles for social media channels under the Bio below.

Feedback, comments or questions are welcome at I cannot promise to respond to each and every message, but I will certainly read them and, where reasonably possible, use the feedback and comments or answer questions.

To discuss RRG with me on S.C.A.N., tag me using the handle Julius_RRG.

RRG, Relative Rotation Graphs, JdK RS-Ratio, and JdK RS-Momentum are registered trademarks of RRG Research.

Julius de Kempenaer
About the author: is the creator of Relative Rotation Graphs™. This unique method to visualize relative strength within a universe of securities was first launched on Bloomberg professional services terminals in January of 2011 and was released on in July of 2014. After graduating from the Dutch Royal Military Academy, Julius served in the Dutch Air Force in multiple officer ranks. He retired from the military as a captain in 1990 to enter the financial industry as a portfolio manager for Equity & Law (now part of AXA Investment Managers). Learn More