On Wednesday, the stock market stuck with its choppy trend.
After Tuesday's rally into resistance, we watched for either a reversal to the downside or a potential break to the upside as momentum had grown since last week. However, the market tends to play out differently than expected, and that continues to be the case in the major indices.
From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rallied into resistance on Tuesday before backing off. This shows that the 50-day moving average at $346.96 is still a formidable price level to clear. On the other hand, the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&P 500 (SPY) and Dow Jones (DIA) are telling different stories.
When watching the major indices, it's important to note if they are trading together, or not. This can make Thursday pivotal, as the QQQs failed to clear resistance while most of the other indexes cleared resistance from their major moving averages. In the case of the SPY, its pivotal level to hold/clear is $445, because its main resistance level comes from the highs of the previous week.
With that said, this leaves the rest of the trading week to decide who wins the battle. Will the DIA, SPY and IWM help to pull the tech-heavy QQQ up, or will they fail and follow the Nasdaq 100 lower?
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- S&P 500 (SPY): 445 pivotal.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): 201.69 flirting with the 50-DMA.
- Dow (DIA): 350 pivotal.
- Nasdaq (QQQ): Major failure of the 50-DMA at 346.96.
- KRE (Regional Banks): 66.85 to hold.
- SMH (Semiconductors): Needs to stay over 247.
- IYT (Transportation): 243 minor support. Has lots of resistance ahead.
- IBB (Biotechnology): Needs to hold over 128.
- XRT (Retail): Watch to stay over 50-DMA at 77.03.
Assistant Director of Trading Research and Education