Mish's Market Minute

When to Buy in May

Geoff Bysshe

Geoff Bysshe


The common refrain, "Sell in May..." gives this month a bad rap, but it doesn't deserve it.

May is historically one of the least volatile months of the year, as measured by its closing average return in the S&P 500 index. Since 1970, its average return has been only 0.49%. Considering December, January, and April are three of the top four best-performing months of the year, the market probably deserves a rest by May.

However, May doesn't always rest, and it's not lacking in historical volatility, as you can see from the chart above of the best and worst-performing months of May in the last 50 years.

There's also an interesting historical trend in May's performance intra-month. It tends to be weak to start, then rally in the latter part of the month. Interestingly, the patterns over the last 10 and 50 years are similar in that May has tended to bottom around the same day of the month in both timeframes.

As you can see in the chart below, the trends of the red line (10 years) and blue line (since 1970) both bottom out around the 13 to 15th trading day of the month.

The 13th trading day of the month will be May 17. With a Fed announcement, earnings from Apple, Inc. (AAPL), and an employment report all this week, May could get off to a wild start. If history is any guide, and the market pulls back this week, look for a bounce around the ninth trading day of the month (May 11) and then a rally into the end of the month starting after May 17.


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Mish in the Media

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Mish presents two stocks to look at in this appearance on Business First AM -- one bullish, one bearish.

Mish joins David Keller on the Thursday, May 13 edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, where she shares her charts of high yield bonds, semiconductors, gold, and regional banks.

Mish joins Wolf Financial for this Twitter Spaces event, where she and others discuss their experiences as former pit traders.

Mish shares her views on natural gas, crude oil and a selection of ETFs in this appearance on CMC Markets.

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Mish joins Bob Lang of Explosive Options for a special webinar on what traders can expect in 2023!

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Coming Up:

May 2nd-5th: StockCharts TV Market Outlook


ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 23-month MA 420
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support - 180 resistance
  • Dow (DIA): Over the 23-month MA-only index
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 329 the 23-month MA
  • Regional Banks (KRE): 43 now pivotal resistance
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 246 the 23-month MA
  • Transportation (IYT): 202-240 biggest range to watch
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 121-135 range to watch from monthly charts
  • Retail (XRT): 56-75 trading range to break one way or another.


Geoff Bysshe

MarketGauge.com

President

Geoff Bysshe
About the author: is the co-founder and President of MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, he's developed trading products, services, strategies and systems while also serving as a trading mentor for MarketGauge customers. He also provides regular commentary and trading instruction in the MarketGauge blog. Geoff is a former floor-trader who was a member of the FINEX trading the U.S. Learn More