SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX 11/30/21 at 4566.97.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral
On the close Friday, the TRIN jumped to 1.59 and the TICKs closed at -181, both in bullish territory. The volume jumped on the SPY Friday, producing a "Selling Climax". Volume again jumped today to even higher levels suggesting another selling climax. The two-day TRIN closed today at 3.21; two-day TRIN closes near 3.00 and higher have come near important lows. Panic is present in the TRIN, VIX and VVIX readings and market bottoms on panic. We are long the SPX on 11/30/21 close at 4566.97.
Yesterday, we showed the %B for the Bollinger band for the VIX along with its RSI reading; both were in the bullish buy levels. Above is the VIX/VVIX ratio, with its RSI reading in the top window. Important lows are made when the RSI of this ratio reaches above 70. Last Friday, the RSI for this ratio closed at 88.11; today, the reading was 70.70. Panic is present and market bottoms on panic.
This is the same chart we posted yesterday, but with a shorter timeframe so one can see the current setup more clearly. Yesterday we said, "A huge base has formed on this ratio starting back to 2013. The longer the base, the longer the rally will last when the base is completed. The hard part is knowing when the base is complete. One way to know is when it breaks above the red line drawn on the chart, which is near the .08 level. Another way of knowing that a break above the .08 is nearing is when the Bollinger Bands are starting a Pinch, which is happening now. There are two trends lines drawn on the monthly XAU/Gold ratio that are coming together near current prices; one is the red near .08 and the other is the blue line connecting the highs going back to 2006, which also comes in near .08. To confirm a break through these trends lines, a 'Sign of Strength' should be seen and something we are expecting to see in the coming weeks." For the short term, the market has been relatively quiet and could be "Quiet before the storm" scenario. With the Bollinger Bands pinching on the monthly XAU/Gold ratio, that suggests a large move is near. A jump in the ratio would suggest a conflict with the virus or possibly China.