SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX 1/2/24 at 4742.83. Gain Since 1/1/23 SPX: 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%. Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Our gain for 2023 came in at 28.12%, and the SPX gain for 2023 came in at 23.38. We made 8 SPX trades with one loss and 7 wins in 2023.
Above is the daily SPY. The SPY was up 5 days in a row going into the 12/28/23 high. Five up days in a row predict the market will be higher within five days 83% of the time. The bottom window is the 10-day TRIN, which stands at 1.20 as of Friday's close. Ten days TRINs of 1.20 and higher shows there is panic in the market, and panic forms at lows; it appears the market is near a short-term low. Long SPX on 1/2/24 at 4742.83.
The middle window is the weekly VIX/VVIX ratio. This chart goes back to mid-2016. We noted with blue arrows the times when the weekly SPY was making higher highs and the weekly VIX/VVIX ratio was making higher lows, which is a bearish divergence. This divergence was suggesting the SPY was nearing an intermediate term high (which it was). Currently, the weekly SPY is making higher highs, and the weekly VIX/VVIX ratio is making lower lows, which suggests a positive divergence for the SPY in the coming months.
The bottom window is the daily GDX and next higher window is the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (premium/discount price). The premium/discount price measures the price of purchasing of the Sprott Gold Trust. Right now, one can buy the Sprott Gold Trust at a 2.13% discount. At previous times when the discount as been 2% or less, GDX has been near a low (marked with dotted red lines). Seasonality is bullish starting in mid-December and running to mid-January. Evidence suggests there is more room to the upside for GDX over the next couple of weeks.
