SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 1/18/24 at 4780.94.
Gain Since 1/1/23 SPX: 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Our gain for 2023 came in at 28.12% and the SPX gain for 2023 came in at 23.38. We made 8 SPX trades, with one loss and 7 wins in 2023.
Above is the 5- and 21-day CBOE equity put/call ratio, which is a sentiment indicator. When bearish sentiment gets high (excess of put buying), an impulse wave is usually about to start. On January 10, both the 5- and 10-day Equity Put/Call reached bullish levels (around the 477 SPY), suggesting an impulse wave is about to begin. We marked times with red line and pink-shaded areas when both the 5- and 21-day Equity put/call ratio reached bullish levels, and most occurred when an impulse wave higher was starting. It's possible the current rally could last several weeks, if not several months. We expect this year for the SPX to be up double digits.
We updated this chart form last Thursday, and last Thursday we said, "Panic only forms at bottoms in the market; no panic, no bottom. A TRIN close above 1.20 shows there is panic in the market, and the more days above 1.20 on the close, the more significant the bottom. The longer the duration in panic, the longer the rally phase. The red lines on the chart above are when the 2-day (bottom window), 10-day (top window) and 21-day (middle window) TRINs reach bullish levels. The 21-day TRIN is important here in that it represents a month of panic. TRIN closes that month reached above 1.20 on average, which is a long time, suggesting an intermediate-term low is forming near current levels in the market. The 10-day TRIN stands at 1.35 and the 21-day TRIN stands at 1.26. There can be some back and forth on the SPY, but, in general, an intermediate-term low is forming here." The 10-day TRIN closed today at 1.43 and unusually high, suggesting an impulse wave higher may be starting.
Tim Ord,
Editor
www.ord-oracle.com. Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.
Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable; there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.
