DecisionPoint

June 2017

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Signals Galore! New PMO SELL Signals on Dow, Dollar and Bonds - IT Trend Model Neutral on Gold

by Erin Swenlin

Today brought a plethora of new DecisionPoint timing signalsall bearish. As far as the DP Scoreboards are concerned, the Dow initiated a PMO SELL signal on the daily chart today. This puts all four indexes on PMO SELL signals. I've included the daily chart of the Dow below the Scoreboards. Heads up the IT PMO BUY signal on the SPX has disappeared, but the signal isn't final until after trading on Friday. If we get an incredible bounce tomorrow, that signal may be prevented. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Read More 

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One PMO Scan to Rule Them All!

by Erin Swenlin

I love to use the Advanced Scanning Workbench and find it absolutely invaluable in my investment mining process. Every other Monday, I review the PMO scan that I've chosen for the day and use the results to create my "Monday Set-Ups" symbol list. "Monday Set-Ups" is a segment where both Tom and I discuss what we think might be hot properties in the coming week or more. Now that I'm running the scans more often, I've been tweaking them as I go along. I've now got what I think is the most robust scan in my toolbox. First, if you're not an Extra Read More 

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DP Alert: NDX Posts New ST Trend Model Neutral Signal - TLT Fake Out Breakout

by Erin Swenlin

As annotated on the DecisionPoint Scoreboard Summary, the Nasdaq 100 just triggered a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) Neutral signal as the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA on the daily chart. Today's breakdown took out support at the May high and closed just below the 50-EMA. The PMO on the NDX is reaching previously oversold territory which is encouraging, but it is pointed straight down right now. I suspect we will see previous June lows tested at a minimum. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Read More 

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Troubling Negative Divergences

by Carl Swenlin

SPY began the week with a breakout on very high volume that subsequently looks like a minor blowoff, as price retreated back into the June trading range. The expansion of New Highs on Monday failed to match the climactic level of New Highs on June 2, and a PMO top implies that we could be in for more churning, and maybe a bit of a decline. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. STOCKS Read More 

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DP Alert: NEW PMO SELL Signals on $OEX and $SPX - TLT Closing the Gap

by Erin Swenlin

The S&P 500 triggered a new PMO SELL signal yesterday at the close. Today, the S&P 100 joined in with its own PMO SELL signal. At this point, the Dow is the only one holding onto a PMO BUY signal, but a quick peek at the chart and we can see the PMO has topped and is heading down. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds Read More 

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What's Up With Techs? Price

by Erin Swenlin

Today on MarketWatchers LIVE (airs M/W/F Noon - 1:30p EST) during the regular market updates, I noticed technology was rallying strongly. If you recall, the Nasdaq has been taking it on the chin more than the other major indexes on declines which is why the NDX is the only index Scoreboard carrying a PMO SELL signal. The question is whether we will see more rally. Below is the intraday Market Summary (the link is on the members homepage). An almost 1% move higher for the NDX today when the other indexes closed lower. I decided to Read More 

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DP Alert: Dollar (UUP) ST Trend Model BUY Signal - Oil Hits Last Chance Support

by Erin Swenlin

No new signals yet on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, but with index PMOs in decline, I suspect we will see some more if the bulls can't get a rally to stick. Last Friday, the OEX weekly PMO had a negative crossover SELL signal. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that using this daily reference will be quick and painless, we are as brief as possible, and sometimes we Read More 

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Market Indicators Look Bad

by Carl Swenlin

About three weeks ago I began looking for the market to consolidate or correct because of price being very overbought based upon its extreme departure from the 200EMA. So far we have two weeks of price churning sideways, and that has gotten the technical indicators in a condition that promises more of the same, if not an outright correction. Let's take a closer look. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds Read More 

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DP Alert: Gold Triggers PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

No new signal changes to report, but I do want to mention that the PMO for the NDX continues lower with no hesitation. For the other three indexes, the PMO BUY signals are intact, but short-term PMOs are now all declining. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that using this daily reference will be quick and painless, we are as brief as possible Read More 

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DP Alert: Dollar Recovering - Gold and Bonds Lose Favor

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday saw the addition of a PMO SELL signal in the short term (daily chart) for the Nasdaq 100. Interestingly, if you look at the other three, their PMOs have turned up today. Despite a slowing market, Gold has struggled since its unsuccessful test of overhead resistance and now Bonds have stalled. Meanwhile, the Dollar has bounced off support and appears headed for a bull market. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the Read More 

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Nasdaq 100 New PMO SELL Signal - New ITTM BUY Signal for Financial SPDR (XLF)

by Erin Swenlin

As the market closed, I received a Technical Alert that the NDX had triggered a PMO SELL signal. Additionally, I received notice that a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal just occurred today on the Financial SPDR (XLF). I've updated the NDX Scoreboard. It is the first PMO SELL signal to occur since the recent pullback. It's not surprising as we've been seeing the technology sector hit hard over the past week with big declines from major players like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and Facebook (FB). Yesterday's plunge on the NDX Read More 

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Record Highs, Then Reversal

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote: ". . . the spike in S&P 500 New Highs makes me think that the market may be on the verge of another consolidation or correction that could last several weeks." I still think that outlook is viable, based upon this week's price action. The market formed a short flag the first four days of this week, and while price broke out of the trading range on Friday, the breakout failed and price actually broke down through the bottom of the trading range. Price finally settled back inside the trading range, but it makes one wonder if this was a blowoff setting up a correction? Read More 

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DP News Bulletin: New Weekly PMO BUY Signal on $OEX

by Erin Swenlin

As the week closes, we did see one new signal change on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards that I wanted to point out. The S&P 100 (OEX) triggered a new PMO BUY signal on the weekly chart.  I wouldn't get overly excited given the PMO has flattened and is actually in danger of a whipsaw next week. Helpful DecisionPoint Links: DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery Trend Models Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) On Balance Volume Read More 

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Oil Hammered Today - Time for a Bottom?

by Erin Swenlin

During today's MarketWatchers LIVE Show (12:00 - 1:30p MWF), the big news was the correction on Oil. Oil prices dropped more than 5 percent after the government reported an unexpected increase in crude inventories. After global producers cut inventories, the hope had been that supplies would lessen the current "glut", but it wasn't enough, which sent prices careening lower. Of course with a breakdown of this magnitude and coming after an already deep decline, the question is whether we've hit a bottom. Looking at the daily chart below, I'm bothered by a number of things Read More 

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DP Alert: Gold Breaks Above Declining Tops Line Formed in 2012

by Erin Swenlin

The markets have been backing off this week but so far it hasn't shifted any short-term timing signals on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Gold rallied today and finally hurdled long-term overhead resistance along a declining tops trendline that originally formed in 2012. Price has made numerous attempts at pushing through this trendline, but today, it finally succeeded.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the Read More 

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- New Highs Climax

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote: ". . . our short- and intermediate-term indicators suggest that we will see a few more weeks of rally before another correction/consolidation." In the first two days of this short week price continued to consolidate the prior week's advance, and then the rally continued in the last two days, with price moving to new, all-time highs. Let's examine the prospects of such positive action continuing. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the Read More 

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DP Alert: Rally Pop! Internal Strength Prevails - S&P 600 (IJR) New ITTM BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Admittedly I was surprised that the market had just a brilliant day given the very bearish configuration of short-term market indicators. Apparently I should have paid more attention to the short-term buy signals that were produced over the past week or two. The rally brought the S&P 600 ETF (IJR) a new IT Trend Model BUY signal with a PMO nearing a positive crossover BUY signal. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P Read More