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Old Tech Whips Up on New Tech

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 is up around 1.75% over the last two months, but the Nasdaq is down around 4%. Part of the reason for this discrepancy can be found in the performance of ten key tech stocks. The PerfChart below shows IBM, Microsoft, Intel, Cisco and Oracle with gains over the last 41 trading days. In contrast, Netflix, Facebook, Google, Tesla and Amazon are down, and down rather sharply. The old guard is holding up the market right now and showing some serious relative strength.  Read More 

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Currencies Are At The Decision Point, Part Deux - Eurozone

by Greg Schnell

This article will look at the four currencies in the Eurozone that are part of $USD index.The Euro, the Swiss, the British Pound and the Krona. Earlier today I published a currency article showing the Yen, the Aussie and the Canadian Dollar all just under important resistance. That article can be found here. Currencies Are At The Decision Point Starting at the top, the British Pound has been in an uptrend through most of 2013. In the first quarter it reached up to resistance levels from 2011 and 2009. What is very important to note is that the breaking of these levels to the topside Read More 

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Currencies Are At The Decision Point

by Greg Schnell

When big market moves in the $SPX or other major indexes happen, there is usually a big move in the currencies. Today, studying the non-Euro currencies reveals an interesting dilemma. This is the big picture view. The chart title is $CDW, however, the charts are in a specific order that was decided by the breakdowns of the large head/shoulders patterns over the last few years. Those breakdowns were from the dotted red trend lines.  First of all the Yen or $XJY. The Yen is now at 97 to the $USD. If the Yen breaks higher, the $NIKKEI has historically moved inversely or in the Read More 

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NFLX - Have We Seen This Movie Before?

by Greg Schnell

Netflix has been a darling for the momentum stock selectors. So on a Saturday night, maybe we should watch a movie on NFLX. When I called up NFLX today, I was in awe at how similar the patterns are looking back to 2011. Have we seen this movie before? The SCTR had NFLX as one of the top stocks in the market. When it collapsed, it took almost a full year to get back above 70 on the SCTR.  The MACD had stayed in a tight pattern back in 2011. Similar pattern in 2013. When NFLX lost support at the 20 WMA, it went down and tested the 40 WMA in 2011 and again in 2014.  After Read More 

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The Big Split Among Ten Key Industry Group ETFs

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 is up 1.64% year-to-date and the Russell 2000 is down 1.66%. This market splits is also reflected in year-to-date performance for ten key industry group ETFs. Notice that five are up and five are down. The Retail SPDR (XRT), Home Construction iShares (ITB), Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) and Internet ETF (FDN) are weighing on the market, while the REIT iShares (IYR), Semiconductor SPDR (XSD), Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) and Transport iShares (IYT) are lifting the market.   Read More 

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StockCharts Technical Rank Surges for Juniper Networks

by Arthur Hill

Juniper Networks (JNPR) is making waves because its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) surged above 80 with one of the biggest SCTR gains among large-caps. Chartists can access the SCTR tables in the lower half of the home page. Click on "top up" to find the biggest SCTR gainers and "top down" to find the losers. On the price chart, JNPR broke resistance with a big surge from November to January and then corrected with a falling channel over the last three months. A break above channel resistance would reverse the three-month downtrend and signal a continuation of the prior advance Read More 

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Nvidia Goes for a Flag Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Nvidia (NVDA) is showing relative strength as it breaks above consolidation resistance. The chart below shows the stock surging and then moving into a trading range that looks like a flat flag. A breakout here would signal a continuation higher. The indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) above 90, which means NVDA is showing some serious relative strength. Notice how the SCTR broke out a day before the stock as relative strength led absolute strength. Read More 

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Is It Time To Go To $GOLD?

by Greg Schnell

Some days, its about what is not moving. That would be $GOLD. Here is the chart of GLD the tracking ETF.You can see the SCTR is at 3. This means it is behaving worse than 97% of the stocksand ETFs on the $TSX. We recently made a lower low and are below the 200 DMA. The MACD is diverging with a higher low, so that is very interesting. But look at the gold stocks as shown by XGD.TO. The Gold miners broke out today. Below is a chart with the GDX for the US gold miners tracking ETF. GDX is Read More 

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Another $BPNDX Clue To Match The $BPNYA

by Greg Schnell

The Nasdaq data is the most interesting in terms of change in my chart lists currently. The $BPNDX is producing similar signals to the $NDXA200R. See today's Chartwatchers newsletter for more information on that. Here is the link. ChartWatchers. The Nasdaq seems to be much more sensitve to showing future market direction than the strong boat-anchor-sized $SPX. The sector mix in the $SPX is so diverse it behaves differently than the Nasdaq. So I find good clues in the Nasdaq data and also look across to the $NYA data for confirmation. Here is a $BPNYA article from earlier in the week Read More 

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$BPNYA - Bullish Percent Index Clues

by Greg Schnell

The concept of Bullish Percent is great. From a group of stocks, you calculate the % of stocks on a buy signal. The rest are on a sell. With PnF charts as the basis for Bullish Percent calculations, penny moves don't matter as in New Highs or the Advance Decline line. There is a mid range that the signal does not switch back and forth in bullish percent. So the Bullish Percent chart shown below has some interesting traits. It looks detailed but let's cover it in simple concepts. When the market breaks out to new bullish levels, the BP surges above 70.  Generally, it takes a while Read More 

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The $NIKK Sends An "Iceberg Dead Ahead" Signal

by Greg Schnell

The $NIKK was a leading indicator at the market tops of 2000 and 2007.  The $NIKK closed today at new lows after making a big divergent high. How could the $NIKK be a leading indicator? I think the underlying cause is the carry trade with the Japanese Yen. While I think it is a poor indicator of day to day moves, it has been extremely informative in big picture market action. First of all, the down sloping trendline across the top of the $NIKK chart has not been broken but it was recently tested Read More 

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Sector Rotation in a Nutshell $XLK $XLU

by Chip Anderson

Here's a chart that you should definitely not ignore: (Click on the chart for a live version.) So this is a chart of the relative strength of the Technology sector (using XLK as a proxy) versus the Utilities sector (XLU).  These two sectors are at opposite ends of the market cycle.  When everyone is bullish and the market is heading higher, tech stocks usually lead the way.  When people are bearish, Utilities (i.e. bonds) show lots of strength.  So charting the ratio of technology and utilities will give you a very quick way to see the market's current state Read More 

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BioTech Shows Signs Of Responding To Market Medication

by Greg Schnell

Biotechs launched on Wednesday even though the overall market started out with a relatively passive tone. The Dow up 75 was nothing to sneeze at but not remarkable. When the Fed minutes were released the market absolutely popped higher. The Nasdaq finished the day up 1.72 % and the biotechs were up 4.1%. The volume would suggest anybody who was selling probably already did. Today, the volume was lower but the massive move marks a pretty clear turn in sentiment. The slight positive divergence on the MACD is supportive. As well the SCTR quickly jumped back above 50 as the price Read More 

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Is Walmart A Fed Indicator?

by Greg Schnell

The Fed - Federal Reserve - has made massive accomodations over the last 4 years. Walmart WMT has been an interesting chart to watch. Lets lay it in here and analyze it with a bit of depth. First of all, the top purple shaded area plot is the SPURS - $SPX Relative Strength. The Relative Strength of Walmart compared to the $SPX. When it is going up, Walmart is outperforming the $SPX. We can see two areas where the SPURS really started going up. It broke out in Ocober 2007 and in the second quarter of 2011. The next plot is the SCTR or StockCharts Technical Ranking system. You can see 5 Read More 

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Apple Fails to Hold Triangle Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Apple (AAPL) appeared to be breaking out with a surge above triangle resistance in late March, but this breakout failed as the stock reversed in the trend line zone and broke back below 535 on Friday. Sometimes a failed signal is as value as a signal. In other words, this failed breakout is bearish until proven otherwise. The trend remains down for Apple and chartists can mark first resistance at 546. Read More 

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Gold Miners ETF Hits Critical Juncture near Two Key Moving Averages

by Arthur Hill

After breaking the 200-day and 50-day moving averages with a sharp decline, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) consolidated with a small pennant. Notice that this consolidation is occurring near the 62% retracement and early February lows. This puts GDX at a critical juncture. A break below support would signal a continuation lower and target a move to the December lows. A break back above the two moving averages would be quite positive and revive the uptrend. Read More