- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Lines held above their February lows. The NYSE AD Line broke above its late May high and Nasdaq AD Line is challenging its late May high.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line held and bounced off its February low. The NYSE AD Volume Line broke its February low, but surged the last eight days and broke its late May high.
- Net New Highs: Neutral. The 10-day SMA for Net New Highs turned positive for the NYSE, but remains in negative territory for the Nasdaq. A mixed bag right now.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. Seven of the nine sector BPIs are above 50%. Finance is at 49.39% and Materials is at 41.94%. Four of the seven major index BPIs are above 50%. Many are still quite close to the 50% mark and could flip with another downturn.
- Sentiment: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) broke below their late May and early June lows. Declining volatility is generally positive for stocks.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. The major index ETFs recorded new 52-week highs in April, held their February lows and surged over the last seven days.
- SPY Momentum: Bearish. The Aroon Oscillator and MACD (5,35,5) remain in negative territory, but RSI broke above 50. Still, two out of three are bearish.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Neutral. I am concerned with relative weakness in the finance sector.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio remains in an uptrend overall.
- Small-caps Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio has been moving lower since April.
- Breadth charts have been updated (click here).
Last week's "Bull" was inadvertent when the summary was negative 2. A bearish bias prevails when the indicator summary is negative. The sum has since flipped back into positive ground. I look at each indicator to assess its bullish or bearish bias. The AD Lines, AD Volume Lines and Trend/Structure indicators are based on basic long term trend analysis. Higher highs are bullish. Lower lows are bearish. Net Net Highs are bullish when the 10-day SMA is above zero. The Bullish Percent Indices favor the bulls when above 50%. Momentum favors the bulls when these three indicators are above their centerlines. The last three measure relative performance and are more subjective. This summary is not designed to pick tops or bottoms. It is simply an assessment of current conditions. It is not immune to whipsaws either. Hope that helps.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight. Previous turns include: Positive on 11-Sept. Negative on 5-February. Positive on 5-March. Negative on 11-June. Positive on 18-June.
