Art's Charts

Indicator Remains Positive as Bulls Control Trends

Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

While there are some discrepancies out there with various indicators, the weight of the evidence clearly favors the bulls. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high this week. Net New Highs expanded on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Small-caps are outperforming large-caps. Three of the five major index ETFs exceeded their February highs recently. Overbought conditions, excessive sentiment readings and low volume may be overhanging this uptrend, but these negatives are outweighed by the positives in breadth and price trend. See the About Page for more on Art's Charts and this indicator summary.

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  • AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line is back near its 2011 highs and the NYSE AD Line hit a new 52-week high this week.   
  • AD Volume Lines: Neutral. The NYSE AD Volume Line is back near its February high, but the Nasdaq AD Volume Line is lagging and remains well below its February high.
  • Net New Highs: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE Cumulative Net New Highs Lines are moving higher as Net New Highs expanded sharply over the last several days.   
  • Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All BPIs remain above 50%. 
  • VIX/VXN: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) both moved back below 20. The fear factor is low and this is positive for stocks.  
  • Trend Structure: Bullish. DIA, IWM and MDY moved above their February highs to record fresh 52-week highs recently. Even though QQQ and SPY have yet to confirm, three of the five have broken out and this is bullish.   
  • SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD(5,35,5) moved back into positive territory on 25-March. RSI recovered with a move back above 60 and Aroon moved back above 50. 
  • Offensive Sector Performance: Neutral. Only the Industrials SPDR (XLI) has broken above its February high. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Technology ETF (XLK) and Finance SPDR (XLF) have yet to break their February highs. What giveth?
  • Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The Nasdaq has been underperforming the NY Composite ($NYA) since early January.
  • Small-cap Performance: Bullish. Small-caps have been outperforming since 24-January and the Price Relative ($RUT:$OEX) hit a fresh 52-week high this week.
  • Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated
  • This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.

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    Previous turns include:
    Positive on 11-Sept-09
    Negative on 5-Feb-10
    Positive on 5-March-10
    Negative on 11-Jun-10
    Positive on 18-Jun-10
    Negative on 24-Jun-10
    Positive on 6-Aug-10
    Negative on 13-Aug-10
    Positive on 3-Sep-10
    Negative on 18-Mar-11
    Positive on 25-Mar-11

    Arthur Hill
    About the author: , CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More