There are areas of weakness in the stock market, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line broke below its April low, but the NYSE AD Line remains in a clear uptrend. SPY momentum was downgraded to bearish as MACD(5,35,5) moved into negative territory and Aroon(20) remained below -50. Momentum is often one of the first indicator groups to flash a warning sign. Despite these negatives, we cannot forget that the major index ETFs hit new 52-week highs just four weeks ago. Moreover, stocks surged from mid March to late April. A pullback is quite normal at this stage. So far, I do not think this pullback has gone far enough to warrant a major trend change. In particular, the April lows have yet to be broken by most of the major index and sector ETFs. See the About Page for details on Art's Charts.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line failed to confirm the April high in the Nasdaq and broke below its March low. The NYSE AD Line remains in a clear uptrend (split decision).
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line met resistance at its February high, but remains in an uptrend overall. The NYSE AD Volume Line edged above its February high in late April and remains in an uptrend.
- Net New Highs: Neutral. The Cumulative Net New Highs Line for the Nasdaq dipped below the 10-day EMA for the first time since mid March, but the NYSE version remains above its 10-day EMA (split decision).
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All but one Bullish Percent Index is above 50. The Energy Bullish% Index ($BPENER) is at 46.52%. Next in line, the Materials Bullish% Index ($BPMATE) is at 53.33% and the Technology Bullish% Index ($BPINFO) is at 55.06%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) are below 20 as fear remains subdued.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. The major index ETFs (DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ, SPY) recorded 52-week highs in April and are in uptrends overall.
- SPY Momentum: Bearish. MACD(5,35,5) moved into negative territory for the first time since mid March. Aroon(20) dipped below -50. RSI is below 50.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Neutral. The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) are showing relative weakness. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology ETF (XLK) are holding their own as both remained above their April lows (split decision).
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio has been rising since late March and remains in a two month uptrend.
- Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio surged over the last two days and remains in an uptrend since late January.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
