With two more upgrades, the indicator summary is now at plus nine. The only indicator not bullish is the $RUT:$OEX ratio because it has yet to convincingly break resistance. Small-caps are lagging a bit, but this could also be due to above-average strength in financial large-caps the last few weeks. The NYSE AD Line hit a 52-week high this past week and remains in a strong uptrend. The AD Volume Lines both broke above their October highs and remain in clear uptrends. The nine sector Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. Even though the 4-5 week rally may be getting short-term overbought, there are no signs of material selling pressure right now.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line broke the early December high, the July trendline and the 63-day EMA. This is the early sign of a trend reversal, but it would take a move above the October high for a complete reversal. The NYSE AD Line forged a 52-week high this month and remains in a strong uptrend.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line and the NYSE AD Volume Line broke their December and October highs with strong moves the last 4-5 weeks.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq Net New Highs have been mostly positive in 2012 and the Cumulative Net New Highs Line moved above its 10-day EMA last week. NYSE Net New Highs have been largely positive since late November and the Cumulative Net New Highs Line is in a strong uptrend.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. Eight of nine are above 70%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) have been trending lower since early October. Decreasing volatility is positive for the stock market.
- Trend-Structure: Bullish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY are above their October highs and in clear uptrends.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI broke above 60, the Aroon Oscillator surged back above +50 and MACD(5,35,5) is in positive territory.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Technology SPDR (XLK) broke above their summer highs. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) is above its October high and the Finance SPDR (XLF) is challenging this high.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio broke above its mid December high and techs have been outperforming in 2012.
- Small-cap Performance: Neutral. The $RUT:$OEX ratio edged above its late December high, but the breakout is not convincing just yet.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 30-December-11
