With another strong week in the stock market, the indicator summary improved with three indicator upgrades. The AD Lines are considered bullish because the NYSE AD Line broke its summer highs and the Nasdaq AD Line broke its early December high. The AD Volume Lines are bullish because both broke their early December highs. Offensive sector performance is now considered bullish because the finance sector has been leading since late November and the consumer discretionary sector broke above its October high. Also notice that all nine Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. Keep in mind that this is an assessment of CURRENT CONDITIONS. The indicator summary is not designed to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it is a trend following type of assessment for the stock market as a whole.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line broke the early December high, the July trendline and the 63-day EMA. This is the early sign of a trend reversal, but it would take a move above the October high for a complete reversal. The NYSE AD Line moved above its summer highs and remains in a strong uptrend.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line is in an uptrend with a break above the July trendline and the early December high. The NYSE AD Volume Line is even stronger with a break above its October high. NYSE Net New Highs have been largely positive since late November and the Cumulative Net New Highs line is in a strong uptrend.
- Net New Highs: Neutral. Nasdaq Net New Highs have been mostly positive in 2012 and the Cumulative Net New Highs line is starting to turn up. NYSE Net New Highs have been largely positive since late November and the Cumulative Net New Highs line is in a strong uptrend.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. Seven of nine are above 70%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) have been trending lower since early October. Decreasing volatility is positive for the stock market.
- Trend-Structure: Bullish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY are above their early December highs and their 200-day moving averages.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI broke above 60 last week, the Aroon Oscillator surged back above +50 and MACD(5,35,5) is in positive territory.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Finance SPDR (XLF) has been leading since late November, while the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) broke above their October highs.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio peaked in late September and remains in a downtrend, but the Nasdaq shows relative strength in 2012 and the ratio is on the verge of a breakout.
- Small-cap Performance: Neutral. The $RUT:$OEX ratio turned up sharply the last six trading days. It remains short of a breakout, but small-cap performance is perking up.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 30-December-11
