There was one downgrade, but the indicator summary remains net positive. Net New Highs were downgraded to neutral because Nasdaq Net New Highs are showing weakness as the cumulative line moved below its 10-day EMA. NYSE breadth remains strong overall as the AD Line trades near a 52-week high and Net New Highs are firmly positive. Even though three of the four offensive sectors show relative weakness, eight of the nine sector Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. It is still a mixed up market, but evidence remains net bullish.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line formed a higher low in July, but needs to break the early July high to reverse the medium-term downtrend. The NYSE AD Line is trading near a 52-week high and remains in an uptrend.
- AD Volume Lines: Bearish. The NYSE and Nasdaq AD Volume Lines surged late last week, but remain in downtrends since April and need to break their early July highs to reverse these downtrends.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq new highs dipped into negative territory last week and the Cumulative Net New Highs line is below its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs remain strong. Net New Highs have been largely positive since early June and the cumulative line hit a new high this week.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. Eight of the nine BPIs are above 50%. The Consumer Discretionary Bullish% Index ($BPDISC) hit 58%. Only the Technology Bullish% Index ($BPINFO) is below 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) and the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) surged early in the week but fell back below 20% on Thursday-Friday.
- Trend-Structure: Neutral. SPY and DIA surged above their mid July highs, but MDY and IWM are lagging. QQQ is hitting resistance near its mid July highs. Breakouts in MDY, IWM and QQQ are needed to turn this indicator group bullish.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD (5,35,5) and Aroon remain in positive territory. RSI broke above 60 again this week and is bullish overall.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bearish. The consumer discretionary, finance and technology sectors are underperforming the S&P 500 on the one and three month timeframes.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio has been flat since April, but has yet to break down.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio pulled sharply the last two weeks as small-caps started to seriously underperform large-caps.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
