With new highs in the major index ETFs, there is little doubt where the bulk of the evidence lies. The bulls are clearly in charge of this market right now. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high, the NYSE AD Volume Line is near its spring high and NYSE Net New Highs surged to their highest level in over a year. Nasdaq breadth indicators are also bullish, but lagging somewhat. Also note that three of the four offensive sectors hit new highs this week (XLK, XLF and XLY). Stocks are getting overbought, but by no means weak as buying pressure continues to outpace selling pressure.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line broke triangle resistance and exceeded its summer high. The NYSE AD Line hit a new 52-week high.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq exceeded its spring high, but the AD Volume Line remains well below this high with a large bearish divergence brewing. The trend, however, is up since early June. The NYSE AD Volume Line surged this week and is nearing its spring highs.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq Net New Highs surged to their highest level since early February. NYSE Net New Highs surged to their highest level in over a year.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine sector BPIs are above 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) and the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) fell back this month and remain in downtrends overall. The early September highs mark key resistance.
- Trend-Structure: Bullish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY recorded 52-week highs this week. The major index ETFs may be overbought, but they are definitely in uptrends.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. The Aroon Oscillator (20) has been positive since mid June. MACD(5,35,5) has been positive since late June. RSI has held the 40-50 support zone since mid June.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. XLY and XLK recorded 52-week highs again this week. XLF surged and also recorded a new high. New highs in three of the four offensive sectors is bullish overall. XLI remains the lone laggard.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio plunged this month, but remains in an uptrend since April.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX has been on a tear since early August, but has yet to reverse the downtrend that started in early February. This one is a tough call because small-caps have seriously outperformed the last six weeks.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
