Art's Charts

NYSE AD Line and AD Volume Line Hit New Highs

Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Things were looking up until the fiscal cliff hit a roadblock. Stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open and it could be a bumpy ride until yearend. The indicator summary remains bullish overall with new highs in the NYSE AD Line and AD Volume Line leading the charge. Net New Highs remain firmly positive and cumulative lines are moving higher. XLF, XLY and XLI also hit new highs this week. Techs continue to underperform, but small-caps are outperforming and making up the difference. The picture is still mixed, but the bulk of the evidence favors the bulls right now.

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  • AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line surged to the trend line extending down from the March high and needs a breakout here to turn bullish. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high and remains in bull mode.   
  • AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line broke the April trend line, but is now at resistance from the July-September highs. The NYSE AD Volume Line surged to a new high. 
  • Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq Net New Highs turned positive in late November and the cumulative line is above its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs are positive and the cumulative line hit a new high this week.
  • Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%.
  • VIX/VXN: Bullish. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) and the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) bounced off their lows, but remain at relatively low levels and below 20%.  
  • Trend-Structure: Bearish. MDY hit a new high, IWM is close to its autumn highs and QQQ remains the big laggard. DIA and SPY broke above their early November highs again, but will be knocked down with today's weak open. It is a mixed picture with today's sharp decline favoring the bears because a lower high could be forming in DIA and SPY.
  • SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI broke above 60 again this week. MACD(5,35,5) turned positive in late November and remains so. The Aroon Oscillator (20) hit +50 to turn bullish in early December. The momentum cup remains half full. 
  • Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Industrials SPDR (XLI), the Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) hit new highs this week. The Technology SPDR (XLK) remains the laggard.
  • Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio edged to multi-month lows in December as the Nasdaq continues to underperform the NY Composite.
  • Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio found support near the October lows and broke above its September high this week. Small-caps are starting to outperform again. Looks like the January effect is happening in early December.  
  • Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure.

121221indisumspy

Previous turns include:

Positive on 7-December-12
Negative on 9-November-12
Neutral on 26-October-12
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09

Arthur Hill
About the author: , CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More