Last week, I wrote about the surge in $WTIC. On the long term charts, it looks pretty bullish. On the short term charts, it looked like a short squeeze. So a week after the big move has settled in, where are we at?
First of all, let's look at some of Canada's larger Caps.
So while crude is back up to the 10 WMA, 2 oil stocks are above the 10 WMA, 2 are below the 10 WMA and CPG is at the 10 WMA. The overall sector has moved down below the 10 WMA as seen in the bottom panel. Pretty mixed.
We have to exercise caution here. The $TSX went on a sell signal as described in the blog last week and most stocks that broke down this week, broke down hard.
I would have liked oil to continue to rally this week and show some real strength. The $98-$100 is solid resistance. If it can not get through $100 after multiple tests, I would expect another major pullback to the low 90's and look for support there.
The fact that the Natural gas stocks are not perking up with the price of natural gas moving higher, leaves me a little jaded on staying with the stocks at this point.
Having Suncor fall below the 10 week is discouraging. Having the overall sector fail to turn up with the higher crude and higher nat gas is very concerning. Let's watch closely next week to see if we can participate in a move to the upside.
Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT
