The Canadian Technician

$NATGAS Looks To Test $6 Today

Greg Schnell

Greg Schnell

Chief Technical Analyst, Osprey Strategic

As the winter weather sits in snow banks across Eastern North America, $NATGAS has been on a roll.

I expected the top to be in for $NATGAS based on the change in the size of the daily moves and a seasonal top in late January early Feb for $NATGAS. Yesterday, $NATGAS had its highest close in a few years, and this morning in futures trading is sits in the $5.90 range.

Short term, I think that ...yadda, yadda, yadda. I was expecting $NATGAS to top out and roll over.

Long term, outside recent memory the chart has some very interesting history.

I have placed 3 lines on the chart. When $NATGAS surged from below to above the bottom line, it went all the way north of $9.50. Once was in late 2000.

Once in early 2003, when equities were coming out of a nasty downturn, $NATGAS was in the$5.86 high on Valentines day. It rose above the lower line late in 2002. By February 25th it went all the way to $9.58. That is a 50% increase in 10 days.

The move in 2009 could qualify also and that stopped out at $6.01.

Currently the daily volatility (ATR) has moved to be higher than 5% / day at $0.33 which is higher than any time in the last 4 years on a cents/day basis.

$NATGAS 20140219 breakout

At this point, $NATGAS could find resistance at $6 or blow right on through to extreme levels. At this point, the best advice is to be very, very nimble.

Good trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT

 

 

 

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, MFTA is Chief Technical Analyst at Osprey Strategic specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Learn More