Wow, has this been a difficult trade.
It has worn out almost every bull and every bear on the street. Canada's major miner just seems to roll over at resistance every time. Recently, it looked like Teck was finally going to hold above the 200 DMA (40 WMA). Here is the current chart.
Starting at the top, The RSI is trapped in bear market mode. Currently falling back below 50.
The SPURS are falling again. The SCTR ranks the stock in the bottom quartile one more time. We can have hope that it must be near the lows, but it can stay as a poor performer for a while.
On the Price panel, $26 looks very important on the chart. If that does not hold, that is a problem. We can see the up sloping trend line is in play as well. That move down last week was large. Any upside momentum appears impaired.
The last 6 months have had above average volume, but to no avail. That would lead me to be more worried than ever. Maybe everyone switched out of Teck and into the gold miners if they are going to run for a while.
Currently the MACD just went negative and crossed the signal line down as well. Yechh!
The Full Sto's continue to show the price is trading in the lower part of the range. That is not bullish. A move above 50 would give us some hope of a major trend change. That is not here yet.
If the $SSEC can get some love I'd be more bullish. The Shanghai index is at a decision point now. Should the miners (other than precious metals) start to fail, I'd be very cautious in this mine shaft generally without more support from Asia.
One reason for my cautious stance is the $SPX is on a miraculous run that is one of the longest runs in the last 25 years without a pullback to the 200 DMA (40 WMA).
This support level of $26 is important on TCK. A close on Friday below the red uptrend would be a big problem technically. Falling below both the 10 WMA and 40WMA in one week is already a big sell signal.
Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT
