The Dow Jones Industrials continues to rise week after week setting new records as it goes. I thought it would be good to take a quick look back and see if history can teach us anything about what the Dow does to signal the end of these long up-trends. Here's a weekly chart of the Dow Industrials going back to 1990.

Dow from 1990

This is a semi-log scale chart (the vertical axis is logarithmically scaled, the horizontal axis is not) and includes my favorite one-size-fits-all indicator, the 20-period Chaiken Money Flow.

The log scaling helps us see that the recent rise, while impressive, is no match for the HUGE rise in the Dow during the mid-nineties. We also see that during the nineties, the Dow's 20-week CMF stayed in the green for several multi-year periods. Both of those observations bode well for the current long-term trend. The Dow has done this kind of thing in the past and might be repeating itself now.

On the downside (there's always a downside, sigh...), the CMF has been in the green for just over 18 months now and that is about as long as it has ever been in the green without some kind of drop. Even during the go-go nineties, the CMF dipped into the red in mid-1996 to break up the longest above-zero stretch on the chart. With history as their guide, alert ChartWatchers will be watching the 20-week CMF for signs of weakness in coming months.

BTW, be sure to read our previous newsletter for details on our Spring Special which is almost over!

Chip Anderson
About the author: is the founder and president of He founded the company after working as a Windows developer and corporate consultant at Microsoft from 1987 to 1997. Since 1999, Chip has guided the growth and development of into a trusted financial enterprise and highly-valued resource in the industry. In this blog, Chip shares his tips and tricks on how to maximize the tools and resources available at, and provides updates about new features or additions to the site. Learn More
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