Two weeks ago I featured the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) with a triangle breakout, strong OBV and relative strength. The ETF surged to resistance from the early January high, but ultimately failed to break above this key level. With a sharp decline over the last eight trading days, the trading bias has quickly shifted back to the bears. The failure at resistance, gap down, trendline break and MACD crossover are all bearish until proven otherwise. At the very least, QQQQ needs to fill Tuesday's gap to merit a reassessment.


The second chart shows the Nasdaq with similar characteristics. There are, however, two notable differences. While QQQQ reached its early January high and broke the triangle trendline, the Nasdaq fell short of this high and did not break the triangle trendline. The Nasdaq is a much broader index than
the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and shows relative weakness. With a gap down, trendline break and MACD crossover, the bulk of the evidence is currently bearish for the Nasdaq as well. Before getting too bearish, notice that trading has been extremely choppy since October. Both the Nasdaq and QQQQ have traded on either side of their October lows the last four months. While the bias is currently bearish, the seas remain treacherous for both bulls and bears.

There is also a video version of the this analysis available at - Click Here.
Arthur Hill
About the author: , CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More
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