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OIL ETF BACK ON BUY SIGNAL

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In my September 25 article I headlined the fact that the Oil ETF (USO) had generated convincing sell signal, so I think it is appropriate to report that the signal has recently turned to a buy. Below is the chart from the 9/25 article showing the breakdown from the triangle formation that accompanied the sell signal. It still looks good to me, but that breakdown turned out to be a shakeout, a final decline clearing the market of sellers and setting up another advance.



On the next chart you can see how the shakeout lows redefined the lower limits and shape of the triangle. Prices rallied off the shakeout base and broke through the top of the triangle. Prices have also broken through the 200-EMA, so I think this move has a lot of credibility. Of course, I also thought the sell signal was very credible too, but we must change our opinion as the evidence demands.



Gold has also made a decisive break above important overhead resistance. I have been concerned that gold would not be able to do this because a rally in the dollar seemed imminent, but the dollar has failed to rally, and gold has shown its strength. At this point I wonder if the oversold condition of the dollar will lead it to decline even further. The technical expectation for gold at this point is for a pullback toward the recently penetrated resistance, now support.



Stock prices have continued to move higher in spite of broad expectations for a decent correction. Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500, we get a longer-term perspective. The price index is headed into an apex where the long-term declining tops line and the top of the ascending wedge pattern converge. It sure looks like a rally stopper to me. The crystal ball says rally top should be in place within a week or two.



Bottom Line: Breakouts in the prices of oil and gold indicate a lack of confidence in the ability of the dollar to rally. Stock prices are approaching long-term resistance, and there is a strong possibility that the rally will finally end. That is not to say that the bull market will be over at that point, but a healthy correction is overdue.

Carl Swenlin
About the author: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he was president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, one of the premier market timing and technical analysis websites on the web. DecisionPoint specializes in stock market indicators and charting. Since DecisionPoint merged with StockCharts.com in 2013, Carl has served a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor. Learn More
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