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FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES

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It was a good week for commodities and an even better week for stocks. But it all started with the dollar. We explained earlier in the week that the Dollar Index (UUP) appeared to be in a bearish consolidation pattern within a major downtrend. That view favored a lower greenback and higher foreign currencies (along with higher commodities). Chart 1 shows the UUP ending the week on the downside. Dollar selling came just in time for commodities. Chart 2 shows the DB Commodities Tracking Fund (DBC) bouncing off its 200-day moving average from an oversold condition. The commodity gains would have looked even better except for heavy selling of grains on Thursday on a report of a near record corn crop. The best commodity performers were base metals like copper. Chart 3 shows copper hitting a new two-month high. Base metals are probably the most economically-sensitive commodities. As a result, their rally this week shows more optimism on the global economy and stocks.

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John Murphy
About the author: is the Chief Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com, a renowned author in the investment field and a former technical analyst for CNBC, and is considered the father of inter-market technical analysis. With over 40 years of market experience, he is the author of numerous popular works including “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” and “Trading with Intermarket Analysis”. Before joining StockCharts, John was the technical analyst for CNBC-TV for seven years on the popular show Tech Talk, and has authored three best-selling books on the subject: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Trading with Intermarket Analysis and The Visual Investor. Learn More
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