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FOUR-YEAR CYCLE LOW WILL BE LATE

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Calculating from the Four-Year Cycle low in 2009, the next cycle low is due in two months, but unless there is a major crash, that projection will not be realized. In fact, we can't even say that there has been a cycle crest yet, although, given the proximity of current prices to the tops in 2000 and 2007, it is likely that a long-term top will be put in soon.

Obviously, the Four-Year Cycle does not repeat at exact intervals -- the last one lasted almost six years from trough to trough -- and it appears that the current cycle is going to be extra long. A "normal" downside for the cycle is about 18 months, so an educated guess as to when the price low might hit is about mid-to-late-2014.

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To summarize, the ten-year trading range of the S&P 500 Index suggests that a major price top should be arriving sometime in the first half of 2013, maybe within three months. After that the Four-Year Cycle low (price low) projection would be for the last half of 2014, unless the decline is exceptionally accelerated.

Carl Swenlin
About the author: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he was president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, one of the premier market timing and technical analysis websites on the web. DecisionPoint specializes in stock market indicators and charting. Since DecisionPoint merged with StockCharts.com in 2013, Carl has served a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor. Learn More
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