One indicator group was upgraded in the indicator summary. With a surge in the Aroon Oscillator (20), SPY momentum was upgraded from bearish to neutral. The rest remains unchanged, very unchanged. Stocks have been edging higher with choppy trading the last five weeks. This amounts to a consolidation after a breakdown. I have yet to see enough bullish evidence to suggest that a bottom has formed.
- AD Lines: Bearish. The Nasdaq AD Line peaked in February 2011 and remains in a downtrend with lower lows since March. The NYSE AD Line broke support in early August and bounced back over the last few weeks. This rising flag looks like a counter trend bounce that will end soon.
- AD Volume Lines: Bearish. The AD Volume Lines peaked in late April-early May, formed lower highs in July and broke down in early August. Nothing but downtrend here.
- Net New Highs: Bearish. Nasdaq Net New Highs returned to the zero line and NYSE Net New Highs edged into positive territory. However, this could just be a bear market bounce. The zero line/area acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bearish. With the break above the mid August highs in a number of sector SPDRs, five of the nine Bullish Percent Indices moved above 50%. While this is positive, note that the consumer discretionary, technology and finance BPIs are still below 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bearish. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) broke above 25 in late July and held above 30 since early August. Fear remains at relatively high levels and this is bearish.
- Trend Structure: Bearish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY broke below their March-June lows to start downtrends in early August. QQQ has moved back above this support break, but the other four have yet to follow suit.
- SPY Momentum: Neutral. RSI moved into the 50-60 zone, which acts as resistance and MACD(5,35,5) remains in negative territory. No breakouts here. The Aroon Oscillator (20), however, surged above 50 to turn bullish.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bearish. All four offensive sectors are in the same boat. The consumer discretionary, technology, finance and industrials sector SPDRs broke major support in August and have yet to move back above these support breaks.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio hit a 52-week high this month as the Nasdaq outperforms the NY Composite. Thank you Apple and Amazon.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio broke down in late July and early August. This Price Relative firmed the last few weeks, but remains in a downtrend overall. Small-caps still show relative weakness.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Negative on 5-August-11
