There is not much change in the indicator summary. I upgraded the NYSE AD Line because this chart looks just like the charts for the Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines. The Nasdaq AD Line remains bearish so the AD Lines as a whole are neutral. Basically, the NYSE AD Line broke resistance with a surge in October and formed a higher low from early October to late November. Now, however, with this week's decline, it is in danger of forming a lower high from late October to early December. The same can be said for IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY. A lot is riding on the late November surge and the gaps that formed on November 30th. While I do not use moving averages that much, chartists may want to watch the 50-day SMAs closely over the coming days. Breaks below these moving averages would reinforce failures at the 200-day SMA (SPY, IWM). This would be a bearish development.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line bounced off the October low, but remains well below its October high and in a downtrend overall. The NYSE AD Line has a big downswing from July to September and a big upswing from October to November. A lower high formed from July to November and we could be seeing another lower high from mid November to early December. A break below the late November low would be most bearish.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The NYSE and Nasdaq AD Volume Lines surged in October to forge breakouts. The November decline could be just a correction of this surge, but this means the late November low must hold. Should a lower high form from late October to early December, a break below this late November low would be most bearish.
- Net New Highs: Neutral. Nasdaq Net New Highs remain negative and the Cumulative Net New Highs Line is below its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs turned positive and the Cumulative Net New Highs Line has been moving higher since mid October. I marked a support level at the late November low and this indicator could hold the key for the bulls.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. Seven of the nine BPIs remain above 50%. The Consumer Discretionary Bullish% Index ($BPDISC) and Technology Bullish% Index ($BPINFO) are still above 60%, which is quite positive.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) moved back above 30, but both are still below key resistance levels in the 36-37 area and in downtrends overall.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. DIA, MDY, IWM, QQQ and SPY all surged back above their broken support levels in late November with big gaps on November 30th. Despite Thursday's decline, these gaps are holding so far. QQQ is the only one to break back below its 50-day. Further weakness below the 50-day in the other four ETFs would be bearish.
- SPY Momentum: Bearish. RSI surged above 50, but has yet to break 60 for a bullish momentum signal. MACD(5,35,5) moved into positive territory. The Aroon Oscillator (20) remains in bear mode (negative territory).
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Finance SPDR, Industrials SPDR, Technology SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR surged back above broken support levels with big gaps on November 30th. All are holding these gaps and above their 50-day SMAs. Breaks below the 50-day lines would be bearish.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio flattened from late October to early December. In other words, the ratio held its late October low. It has yet to turn up, but the decline has stalled and a surge above the mid November high would show relative strength returning to the Nasdaq.
- Small-cap Performance: Neutral. The $RUT:$OEX ratio surged in October and pulled back in late November. Overall, an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern has taken shape since August. A break above the August-November highs would show serious relative strength returning to small-caps
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 3-December-11
