With fresh highs in the major index ETFs this week, the indicator groups held their positive ratings and there was even an upgrade. Sector performance was upgraded because three of the four offensive sectors are showing relative strength (consumer discretionary, industrials and technology). Finance remains a drag, but these three are enough to favor the bulls. Also note that the AD Line and the cumulative Net New Highs line for the NYSE hit new highs. Volume may be low, but there is clearly more buying pressure than selling pressure and this is all it takes to push prices higher.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line continues to lag, but broke above the late July high and the April trend line. The NYSE AD Line recorded another 52-week high and remains in bull mode.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The NYSE AD Volume Line exceeded its early July high this week. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line broke above its mid July high.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq Net New Highs expanded slightly and remain positive. NYSE Net New Highs have been strong since late June and the cumulative line hit a new high this week.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine sector BPIs are above 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) is near its March lows and the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) broke its March lows. Low volatility is a sign of confidence (no fear).
- Trend-Structure: Bullish. DIA, OEF and SPY recorded new 52-week highs this week (uptrends). QQQ is near its April high. MDY and IWM are still lagging, but both broke their July highs.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD (5,35,5) and Aroon remain in positive territory. RSI moved above 60.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. XLY perked up this week and is nearing its May high. XLK and XLI are also strong. XLF is lagging, but did move above its early August high this week.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio has been flat since April, but surged in August and shows more strength than weakness.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX bounced sharply in August, but remains in a downtrend since February.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
