Stocks held their gains with consolidations this week and two upgrades pushed the indicator summary back into positive territory. Nasdaq and NYSE Net New Highs turned bullish again. Nasdaq Net New Highs are not as strong as NYSE Net New Highs though. The momentum group also turned bullish as the Aroon Oscillator surged to +50 and MACD(5,35,5) remained positive. These two indicators are bullish for now, but could switch back to bearish with a sharp decline from current levels. Stocks are basically trading near their late October levels, which is when the indicator summary was last positive. It is as it November never happened – but it did.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line moved back to its early November levels, but needs follow through to reverse the downtrend and turn bullish. The NYSE AD Line is challenging its October highs and still in an uptrend.
- AD Volume Lines: Bearish. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line recovered around 61.80% of its Sep-Nov decline, but remains in a downtrend and below the April trend line. The NYSE AD Volume Line surged to the September trend line and a follow through breakout would be bullish.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq Net New Highs turned positive and the cumulative line edged above its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs are positive and the cumulative line hit a new high this week.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) and the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) are well below 20. While that may seem complacent, it also suggests a lack of fear and this is positive for the stock market.
- Trend-Structure: Bearish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY broke down in late October and early November. The surge back to the early November levels is impressive, but the major index ETFs have yet to take out the early November highs.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI is trading in its resistance zone (50-60). MACD(5,35,5) turned positive and remains above its signal line. A move back into negative territory would be bearish. The Aroon Oscillator (20) surged to +50 to turn bullish. The cup is half full now.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) are performing well, but the Technology SPDR (XLK) is still lagging. Relative strength in three of the four is positive overall.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio flattened out the last 5-6 weeks as the Nasdaq performed in line with the NY Composite. I have yet to see an upturn and breakout though.
- Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio found support near the October lows and broke above its early November high last week. Mid-caps are also starting to outperform and this is positive – provided it holds.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 7-December-12
Negative on 9-November-12
Neutral on 26-October-12
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Positive on 7-December-12
Negative on 9-November-12
Neutral on 26-October-12
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
Learn More