The Canadian Technician

September 2011

The Canadian Technician

Bright stocks on an ugly quarter

by Greg Schnell

Wow, What a quarter for value decimation. Many technicians are overlaying the 2008 decline with the current decline and measuring our progress as we fall into oblivion. Even Cramerica was bearish this morning. The commentators and guests were all frumpy this morning after measuring the 3rd quarter. It didn't help when a large diversified industrial like Ingersoll Rand was pessimistic and lowered expectations. I ran some scans to see what might be outperforming the overall markets and if any sectors are starting to turn up. Obviously the pipelines and REITS are moving higher Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Copper, Metals, Gold or Planes/trains/Autos

by Greg Schnell

Copper is unrepentent in leading the materials sector. I have put $Copper on this chart, and the TSX Metals and Mining index. While Canadian stock investors don't push  the worlds markets around, it would appear that the copper price pushes all of the metals/mining materials. Copper in Black, the mining index in red. This correlation is not very difficult to see and if you are optimistic about Gold, keep watching Copper.   Here's why: While the correlation is not quite as tight, it is still pretty clear. The Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Comparing the TSX to America's Indexes

by Greg Schnell

  Let's compare the Relative Strength of Canada's market to the American major Indexes. Why would we do this and what value might it serve? Did you know: 1) We have outperformed the Dow for 10 years. 2) We have underperformed the Nasdaq consistently for the last 3 years. 3) In 2011, we broke a decade long uptrend and failed on the backtest to get back into the uptrend compared to the $SPX. 4) We outperform the Russell during market corrections. 5) There are so many moving factors, sometimes the big picture is required to help us understand what is going on Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Review of Precious Metals - Gold

by Greg Schnell

Well Gold had a classic move this week with a vicious reversal. Is the move in Gold done? We're not sure. What we are sure of is that the trend has been damaged, but not broken. The slicing of the 10 week with so much aggression would be demonstrative of a lack of support by institutional funds. That weakens the strength more than anything. You need institutions to support a stock or commodity. On the various timeframes, GOLD gave us some interesting indicator readings. How much power it gets on it's next rally will ultimately determine, if this is a primary top in GOLD. The support Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Review of Precious Metals - Silver

by Greg Schnell

Wow what a week for Precious metals. Tremendous move through significant MA's. So is the mammoth trend over? Well, let's analyze Silver to see what we can learn. One of the best ways to analyze charts is historically. You are always right! Actually, old charts can teach us what to look for on current charts. Slicing right through significant moving averages is not good. Usually institutions will support a stock or commodity at a price level. That support broke in Silver and it is important to watch for these trends in other commodities when they have massive runs. Let's start Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What about Dr. Copper? Check the Commodity Currencies

by Greg Schnell

Copper is called Dr. Copper because it is the most sensitive to the overall economic conditions. Copper has flashed a mess of signals this week. One week doesn't make a trend, and things always look bad on a big down week. However, this chart is building some classic signals that mean we have to watch it regularly. Within the chart I have labelled the list of bearish indicators for the Copper market health. $COPPER It is difficult for the commmodities to Rally when the $USD is rising. Check out the $USD Chart. Notice the $USD is above it's 200 DMA (40 WEEK MA in Black) Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Mark Carney - Bank of Canada's Governor

by Greg Schnell

Mark Carney Indicated a few days ago that the risk is skewed to the downside globally. Ben Bernanke reiterated that when he used the term significant risk to the downside. I have used 6 charts from around the world. On each of these charts, some things really help explain the slowing momentum Mr. Carney described today. These are monthly charts going back to the technology top in 2000. 1) Check out the location of the price bars relative to the centre of the Bollinger Bands. When on the positive side of the moving average (centre line), the market is in bull mode. When on the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Welcome to "The Canadian Technician"

by Greg Schnell

  Welcome to the Canadian View of the markets. The goal of this blog is to add analysis of Canada within the world markets, the strong sectors and stocks within Canada, and general commentary on the market. I will discuss stocks above $5 on both exchanges. In general, I like relative strength indicators to help find sectors of the market to be invested in. Usually this is indicated in Purple on my charts. Purple is reserved for the SP500 comparison to the ticker we are analyzing. My Acronym for this is SPURS to differentiate from a ticker's internal RSI as defined by Welles Read More