The Canadian Technician

Monitoring the Ms. Merkel Market Mood

by Greg Schnell

It has been a few days since the EU summit. Let's check in on some places for strength to show up. 1) Let's look at some US banks to see if they are going vertical. While JPM may be stronger, let's look at BAC. I don't get any courage looking at these. Let's go look at a Canadian Bank. RY.TO is big, so lets go there. Doesn't look like it is accelerating much since the European decision.The short term ones are flat. Let's go into the storm. Europe. This looks particularly weak to me. Let's try Read More 

The Canadian Technician

High volume After Earnings....what does it mean to you?

by Greg Schnell

Well, that was some rally! I float between BNN and CNBC during the trading day. Most of the time with the volume off! At the end of yesterday,with the volume on, I heard Bob Pisani enthusiastically say something about volume. Paraphrasing ~ Did you see that volume today. it was ### billion shares. That's Big Volume. My memory flickers and I remember Mr. Pisani ranting for a few days in a row a while back how exceptional the volume was again. Shortly after, the market turned down. How could you have so many buyers and then the market falls? Well, let's try looking at it Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Wow , a rally on a kozy, merky, situation!

by Greg Schnell

Wow, Who would have thought nothing concrete, promises for dates in the future, failed math, leveraged debt on debt, a letter about austerity, and voluntary losses could hold a 27 country project together under extreme tension. Obviously they went to a different math class than the rest of us. First of all, here is an article laying out the response from the July 21st Agreement. Great picture of them having coffee together. Click! Reuters July 21 Lets zoom in on the SP500 and the reaction after the July 21st agreement. You'll notice this mornings Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$WTIC Crude Oil in North America and $BRENT

by Greg Schnell

Well, couple of things have really traded wildly leading up to the European Summit. Here is a chart of West Texas Crude. When people talk about retracement levels, some just throw it away as nonsense. Technicians use retracements. This chart is a classic so far. First of all, Oil fell from it's high and made a low. We discussed that previously. But look at the Price action off the first low. 1)Bounced off the low right up to the 38.2% retracement and reversed. It then when all the way back down, tested the low and pushed higher. It paused at the 10 week Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX really lagging the US markets

by Greg Schnell

Well that was a bullish Monday, with almost 15 days straight up. This TSX market is really underperforming the US markets. On each chart, check the location of the price compared to the 10 week or 40 week MA (Moving Averages). You can always click on a chart to make it larger, add your own settings and save it. Here is the $TSX finally moving above the 10 week line. Notice the gap between the price and the black 40 week line. MACD is finally trying to cross. Here is the SPX, COMPQ, INDU compared to the TSX. I have put the 40 week MA on each of the charts. Now you can see how Read More 

The Canadian Technician

That Copper Dashboard

by Greg Schnell

Shanghai Composite made 2.5 year lows this week and last week. In the same week, Copper made new lows. Every chart is at a decision point. They are all lined up. Here is the Commodities dashboard again. $WTIC is trying to rally above the 10 week. It's pretty important. Europe isn't the only deal, but it is the one in the headlights. Asia isn't pointing higher yet, nor are the commodities. We'll keep watching. Good Trading;   Greg Schnell CMT.     Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Earnings OED ....Different than other OED's.. here's why!

by Greg Schnell

This post is in response to some verbal, some email questions that have come from my previous posts. In posting my last few blogs, I added caution that tomorrow, Friday was OED (Option's Expiration Day) but it is different because it is during earnings season. Is it really different? I think it's really different. The first reason is my SPX graph below. I also showed this trend with the mining index and the NDX  a week ago. This is the main reason for my caution. Notice how close the red arrows that mark intermediate tops are to the blue lines. They are almost on top of them or sit Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Follow the European Banks on Stockcharts

by Greg Schnell

One way to see when this might be breaking out or breaking down is to watch the centre of the storm. In no particular order, Barcley's. BNP Paribas is one of the main French banks under pressure. Deutsche Bank is from Germany (Obviously!) Lastly, 2 Swiss banks at the centre of the continent. Just to be clear, Germany and France are part of the Financial Euro, But England and Switzerland maintained their own currencies. At this point all these charts look the same. The reason is all of these banks backed each Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Energy Bullish % Index... New Buy Signal?

by Greg Schnell

Well, It's be a couple of weeks from the market bottom. A buy signal should be showing up on these charts. I want to caution about how things may fall apart after Options Expiration on Friday. But so far, things look solid.   We have moved well outside our oversold zone. This is currently above 50% so that is bullish. Notice how when the MACD has a deep swoon, that is a great place to look for buys. Lets zoom in on the recent months here. Oil hardly pulled back even when the overall commodities were pulling back. The $USD reversed Read More 

The Canadian Technician

When should you move into the market after a meaningful low?

by Greg Schnell

Nothng is ever 'A sure bet' but some indicators can really help. This indicator and how it was displayed was on the Public Chartlist from Yong Pan or 'Cobra' years back. I encourage you to make your own version of it. Stockcharts.com has some excellent indicators. Sometimes the only way you find out about them is reading through the Public Chartlist under links on the home page. Here is one of my favorites. It won't mean anything till we put it into context. I want to focus on the chartbox at the top. You will see two different colours of Histograms. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Indepth Review of GOLD

by Greg Schnell

GOLD, It's making us work hard ! Well, below are all of the signals I see in GLD. It really needs to get some upside volume going right away if higher highs are coming. This is the Weekly: Here is GLD. A few things to compare. Notice the volume difference this week between GLD and $GOLD. Very different meanings. I like the ETF volume as it is an easily traded ETF rather than at the CME. I find the spike down on the $GOLD chart to be ominous. This takes the difference in the price from the close of one week to the close of the current week and multiplies Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Food Commodities What's up?

by Greg Schnell

Today, we are discussing the commodities within Stockcharts that we can use to Identify food inflation. I've set up a few dashboards for these. The chart patterns are much different than the base metals, lumber and oil. To get a list of the commodities, put the little " ^ " symbol in the centre box for creating sharpcharts and it will create a list of all the available futures commodities. Here is Wheat.   This wheat chart is a typical commodity chart that pulled back when the $USD rose.   Below is Soybeans. It was doing quite Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Financials - Time to strike?

by Greg Schnell

An interesting point on the chart today. This is the Canadian Financials Index, long regarded as the safest banks in the world for at least 5 years now. The Canadian Financials Sector moved above it's 10 Week line this week for the first time in 6 months. That is good news. With JPM giving us such a neutral report and they are best of American Breed, The real question is whether we can hold above the 10 week. But it's time to pay attention, no doubt about it. Click on the pictures for a current chart you can work with that is also larger. If you are in Read More 

The Canadian Technician

IT is starting to move

by Greg Schnell

What is it? The 30 year Bond Yield is it. The bond yield has been trying to base (or at least I think it has). Look at the difference in these two charts. Notice the dates of the picture, top left on the charts. This was a week ago.   Now take a look at the current, updated chart. 4 out of 5 have broken above the 10 week. How to invest in this? One method would be:  HTD.TO or TBT in the US Market. Volume on the Canadian side is very low. Here is the US Version. Click Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Bullish Percent Indexes Oil and Gold

by Greg Schnell

Today's comment is how oversold the energy sector is. THe Bullish percent index is a measure of the % of stocks in a group that are on Point and figure buy signals. Buy Signals are stocks with a recent breakout above a previous column of x's. Fore more on Calculations and explanations of Bullish Percents, see this article. Bullish Percent Take a look at the Energy sector Bullish percent Index. When this level is above 80% it means the majority of stocks making new highs. When it is greater than 50% it is an important place to look for rallies. When it Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Dashboards - Bonds, Currencies and Commodities

by Greg Schnell

Well, On Friday all of my bullish sentiment indicators were solid green. Today, the US market is rallying with gusto, albeit lower volume as it is a Thanksgiving Holiday in Canada and the Canadian market is closed. Lets, check where the BCC models are at.   BONDS So in order, the 30 year yield, 10 year yield, 5 year yield, 2 year yield, 3 month yield. Notice that the shorter term charts are starting to turn up and are breaking above the 10 week line. That is bearish for bond prices, bullish for bond yields. Currencies Here is the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

PEDAL TO THE FLOOR: IT'S EARNINGS SEASON! OR.....

by Greg Schnell

One of the things that make the markets most difficult, is they start to drop long before the earnings do, and they start to rise well before the earnings. The markets rally when you feel hopelessly beaten up, you stop looking at your charts, because everything is bad. You feel euphoric because your account is finally starting to make some progress, and the whole thing comes apart in 12 days in May. One of the things I love about charts is the ability to see after what I didn't see before. Over time, you start to try and look ahead to at least be aware of what you want to see and what Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What's $LUMBER Doing?

by Greg Schnell

$LUMBER has been on a nice uptrend. It is at a support trendline currently. We would like to see this hold and a rally start from here. Canadian Lumber stocks like CFP.TO have had some exciting moves both ways in the last year. This $LUMBER chart will be important for the forestry stocks. Another support line exists from the March 2011 to the October 2011 lows. This range is trying to hold. If we look back into 2009, it ws a resistance line on the way up. Now it is holding as support. Can it keep it up? Click on the charts to see a larger Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Energy Industry ETF - XEG

by Greg Schnell

Well, Some think we are in a recession, some say just a bad month or two. This is the XEG.TO chart which is the Canadian Energy Sector ETF. So far it has bounced off this blue line, but support has really been unavailable as we fell through all the fibonacci levels. It's a falling knife. Complete with extreme values in great stocks. To see a larger version, click on the chart. The color coded bars are from Dr. Alexander Elder. Follow The Canadian Technician on RSS feed, or click on subscribe to drop it in your email. Good Trading Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Black Gold, Texas Tea And An Alberta Appertif!

by Greg Schnell

OK, Where is oil going? Who knows, but what should we watch for? 1) Let's check the trend.   Hey, that is not an uptrend. OK, so Oil is going lower. Well, where will it stop or at least find some support? If it does rally, how do we know when it is changing direction? Well let's figure out where to look for stops. Long term stops would probably locate below the $70.00 level, and really long term stops would be below $67. Let's figure out where the Bollinger bands are, Let's figure out how to use the MA's. Hey we could use Fibonacci! Lets plot them Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Gold and The $USD

by Greg Schnell

As Technicians, we have the privilege of comparing different stocks, commodities, currencies all on the same chart. Too cool. John Murphy (The Blog Writer at Stockcharts) wrote a book called Intermarket Analysis that really had technicians in disagreement for a while as he stepped out from previously understood conventions. Today, this book is a required reading for the CMT designation. Upon finishing the book, you are compelled to try to utilize the body of knowledge he was departing by producing endless charts of comparisons. Some of my favorite charts are derived from Intermarket Read More