Top Advisors Corner

October 2020

Top Advisors Corner

Stocks and Polls - Different This Time?

by Tom McClellan

Since the 2000 election, I have done comparisons of presidential poll numbers and the stock market, which have provided useful insights about how the election was going to turn out. This year, I am not so sure about it working as it has in the past, for a variety of reasons... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

The Ord Oracle October 27, 2020

by Tim Ord

Yesterday, we said "The circle red area is where the TICK and TRIN reached extreme panic levels, which are where bottoms form. We labeled these areas with the blue TICK close reading first and blue TRIN close readings second... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Another Treasury Bond Extreme

by Tim Taschler

I wrote about the record 30-year Treasury market COT on 10/8/20 (here), and am writing this to report another new record short position by the large specs... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

At the Edge of Chaos: Major Move Possible in Stocks as Election Nears

by Joe Duarte

The tension in the stock market is palpable, but, with shifting polls, the odds of a stimulus deal being done possibly increasing, an easy Fed "forever" and tightening volatility indicators (see below), the odds favoring a big move in the stock market are rising... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

VIX Open Interest Says This is Not a Top

by Tom McClellan

The VIX futures contract is a comparatively new product in the financial markets, first traded in March 2004. It has come to be an important product, especially for hedge funds who like to make bets with VIX futures... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

The Ord Oracle October 20, 2020

by Tim Ord

The second window down from the top is the 5 RSI, which is a momentum indicator. Momentum rules everything, and the 5-period RSI is below "0", suggesting momentum is weak... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

At the Edge of Chaos: Out of Favor Stocks with Great-Looking Charts are Multiplying

by Joe Duarte

With the Federal Reserve steadily pushing money into the banking system, the only thing left to happen in order for a significant move higher, pre- or post-election, is some kind of stimulus package deal... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

The Ord Oracle October 13, 2020

by Tim Ord

Yesterday, the TICK closed at -122, which is at the low end of the panic range and not that reliable; TRIN closed today at 1.58 in the panic range. This combination can lead to short-term rallies, but are not that reliable... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

At the Edge of Chaos: V Bottom, New High in Advance/Decline Line Suggest Uptrend Acceleration

by Joe Duarte

The "V" bottom that I thought was possible, as I noted in this space in my 9/27/2020 column, has materialized and, although the U.S... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

A Treasury Bond Extreme

by Tim Taschler

On several occasions, I have written about an extreme being hit in the weekly COTR (CFTC Commitment of Traders Report). I won't go into the workings of the COT Report, but you can see this article (Why I Watch the COT Report) if you want a little background... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

The Ord Oracle October 6, 2020

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring Purposes; Long SPX on 9/25/20 at 3298.46; sold 10/2/20 at 3348.94= gain 1.53% Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 7/8/20 at 38.96; Sold 9/21/20 at 39.76= gain 2... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

At the Edge of Chaos: Strap In. Block the Noise and Follow the Money

by Joe Duarte

In what is becoming an increasingly murky world, especially after President Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis and the ensuing developments, one thing is clear - the market is dividing its time in worries... Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Presidential Cycle Pattern Calls for Choppy October

by Tom McClellan

The S&P 500 has been correlating very strongly with its Presidential Cycle Pattern (PCP) over the past 5 months. It does not always correlate so strongly, so to see this current strong correlation gives greater confidence for how prices should behave forward from here... Read More