Wow, things have changed. I looked at some charts that I had produced a year ago and looked at those same charts today. You'd never know it was the same stock market. Let's start with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 (SPY and QQQ, respectively):
June 17, 2022:
As of June 2022, nearly everyone had turned bearish (that's what cyclical bear markets do!) and the equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE) finally saw retail options traders jumping into puts as fast as they could. Unfortunately, when you get that type of imbalance and a big turnaround in the CPCE, that's generally a time when the risk of being short typically surges. Also, note the QQQ:SPY ratio (bottom panel) didn't follow price action lower from the May low to the June low. Instead, rotation began to favor growth-oriented areas of the market and it was one of several factors that led me to this Trading Places show and bold prediction one year ago:
You wouldn't believe the push back I got - and I'm being nice - from this market bottom call. And it wasn't perfect, by the way. We did go slightly lower in October 2022. I did follow up in late-September 2022, though, suggesting it would be a double bottom:
None of my signals had changed, so why wouldn't I believe it was a double bottom? The YouTubers were all over me again. Of course, any call like that needs to be given time. Here we are, one year later, and I think my call withstood the test of time. I was also EXTREMELY bullish at our MarketVision 2023 event in early January 2023, suggesting we'd see a very strong January. Purely from memory, I believe January 2023 was the 6th best January since 1950. Now would be a good time to check out the current S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 charts.
June 17, 2023:
It's a little different picture, don't you think? Those who deny the bullishness in 2023 seriously need to reconsider their methods and strategies. The time to get in was obviously at those two bottoms in 2022. The big Wall Street firms manipulated EVERYONE. Our EarningsBeats.com members were well-equipped to deal with the manipulation. I wrote about it often in our Daily Market Reports and have publicly expressed how this manipulation takes place. I pointed it out repeatedly WHILE IT WAS HAPPENING. I said that Wall Street firms were accumulating growth while everyone else was panicking out of their positions, which had lost plenty. We have some very grateful members. Listen, many folks thought I was off my rocker! And based on how Wall Street "trains" us to think, I get it. I heard it all!
"Tom, this is a bear market. What upside is there in calling a bottom?"
"You don't know what's about to happen next."
"You can get in at 3000 (S&P 500) or below in the next 3 months"
"We're going to retest the March 2000 lows."
And it went on and on. The only thing I could do was share my proprietary research. From there, everyone had to make their own choices.
My favorite response on YouTube and other outlets, though, has always been, "Tom's a permabull, he always thinks we're going higher". Anyone that says that either didn't follow any of my work during the first half of 2022 or just has a very short-term memory. When all the cheerleaders on CNBC were touting all-time highs at the beginning of 2022 and all the Wall Street Bets folks were trying to withdraw from what they thought was their personal ATM machines (stock market), I provided very stern warnings about 2022. I literally offered up a warning to start the year:
This was New Year's Eve, December 31, 2021. Yes, while everyone else was out, beginning their New Year's Eve festivities, I was doing more research about the stock market. Why? Because I'm passionate about the stock market and I LOVE to research and teach about the stock market. I provided warnings here, I never said we topped. For me, it's all about risk. There was WAY too much risk to remain long at the time. By February, I was definitely in the cyclical bear market camp:
At that time, I hosted a webinar, "Anatomy of a Cyclical Bear Market", so that our EarningsBeats.com members were prepared for what lied ahead. It played out almost perfectly through that June 2022 bottom call.
Anniversary Special
I call what I see. If my charts suggest caution, then I tell our members exactly that. And when I'm bullish, I don't hesitate to speak my mind. I don't care what anyone else thinks, I remain completely objective in my calls. Do I lean to the bullish side? Absolutely! And why wouldn't I? Look at this 100-year chart of the S&P 500:
Honestly, which way would you lean?
We are having a one-year Bottom Call Anniversary Special at EarningsBeats.com. It's nowhere to be found on our website. I'm offering this to those who have followed me over the years here at StockCharts.com and those following me on YouTube. Our Market Guidance has been second to no one. If you'd like to understand more fully how the stock market works, now is the PERFECT time to give us a try. For a one-year subscription (normally $997 for 12 months), I'll throw in the 30-day trial period AND 2 BONUS MONTHS for no additional cost! That's 15 months for the price of 12 for proven stock market guidance, research, and education. You won't find a better deal from us. To get your "15-month for the price of 12" subscription started, write to us at "support@earningsbeats.com" and simply put ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL in the title. We'll get back to you to get you set up right away. This special offer will end at midnight ET on Tuesday.
Happy trading!
Tom
