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Why does the Nasdaq AD Line have a downward bias?

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In short, the Nasdaq has easier listing requirements than the NYSE. This makes it easier for startups and high-risk companies to get a listing. Startups and high-risk companies can prosper in a strong bull market with plenty of liquidity. However, these companies suffer when liquidity is tight or during a bear market. Once listed, these companies must meet certain financial and reporting requirements or face the prospects of a delisting. The Nasdaq has many more delistings than the NYSE.

091204zmailnsadl1 Click this chart for details

The first chart shows the Nasdaq AD Line over the last six years. Notice that the AD Line declined as the Nasdaq advanced from July 2004 to October 2007. When the Nasdaq turned down, the decline in the AD Line accelerated. Since March, the Nasdaq has advanced back to the 2008 support level (blue line). However, the AD Line remains well below corresponding levels.

091204zmailnsadl2 Click this chart for details

Even thought the Nasdaq AD Line has a long-term downward bias, it can be used for medium-term swings (1+ months). The second chart focuses on the Nasdaq decline from July 2004 to July 2007. The red arrows mark AD Line peaks. The green arrows mark AD Line bottoms. These correspond pretty well with Nasdaq tops and bottoms. There is, however, a big disconnect from March 2007 to July 2007. This disconnect continued until the October 2007 top. Click here for a current AD Line chart.
Arthur Hill
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com. He has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities magazine. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed technician. In addition to his CMT designation, Arthur holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More
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