The Canadian Technician

Bears For Breakfast - When The Bulls Run

by Greg Schnell

One of the greatest feats of technical analysis is not its simple execution of reading a single chart. That is the basic building block. The real beauty of Technical Analysis is reading hundreds of charts and building a story that meshes together across them. In blogs, this art is difficult as you get a few pieces in each blog but not a great macro story. Recently I blogged about the equity markets on a short term 60 minute basis. Occasionally I go on about the macro markets on a monthly basis. Before that was the symmetry across the currencies. Before that was the symmetry across the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A 60 Minute View Of The Different Averages

by Greg Schnell

Sometimes, the market can mask internal weakness and all of a sudden it lets go. Today, the charts are are at an interesting location relative to themselves and the others. First of all, here is the chart. So I have placed the indexes in order of strongest to weakest based on the 60 minute chart. So the chart is $TRAN but everything else was stronger so $TRAN ended up on the bottom. The $COMPQ is trying to take out old highs and has been here for about 6 hours now. The $SPX is a little weaker. It is testing the support level right under the highs of the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

One Of My Fear Gauges Continues To Show More Pain

by Greg Schnell

  This is the chart of three month T-Bills. When investors are looking for short term safety, they go here. As they buy, it pushes the yield down. You can see .5 has been an interesting level. This week we have moved below it in almost a straight line down for the past 8 weeks. I would encourage you to click on the chart and see the large scale. It is my notepad that I write macro ideas on. Some of them never become a problem, like the free parking during the fiscal cliff discussions.  But we've headed lower for 8 weeks now after a failed breakout at 1.20. Usually below this Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Currency Charts Are Falling Into Alignment For A Big Move

by Greg Schnell

There is a remarkable amount of confluence on the currency charts right now. To a new investor, there might not be much there. But for technical pattern traders, this is literally lining up to be a blockbuster May. I want to show a pair of charts I showed once before. They have all reset to a very interesting place on the charts.. Let's start with the last year, then we'll zoom out to the big picture. I'll comment on each price plot below. We are moving through the charts in their proximity to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Commodities Shaken Not Stirred. Any Olives? Olive Branches?

by Greg Schnell

I think even James Bond might have been rattled by the moves in commodities today.  Margin calls rolled across Silver and Gold. Natgas , Silver and Gold all had changes in margin requirements announced by the CME. Copper made new one year lows, but closed above the level. The precious metal companies were crushed. The NUGT 3X ETF lost 50% in a few days. The miners were taken to the boiler room. TCK/B.TO made 4 year lows today but managed to close above the previous lows. $TSX looked like a tornado hit it, as it swirled down continuously into the close. We would have to say wow! If Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Dr. COPPER - A Really Big Deal Today

by Greg Schnell

$Copper charts are updated on an EOD basis. EOD means End Of Day  in the chart title. The live trading of Copper this morning is $3.23 That line is very important on the long term chart for copper. So Copper is testing last years lows at $3.24 this morning. I don't have a real time price for copper but I saw it trade down to $3.23 on the BNN ticker this morning. Previously, we were talking about copper breaking a trendline support off the rising lows. Now we are testing the horizontal level. We'll watch for the close, but it made new 1 year lows intraday. As you can Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$WTIC Breaks Support, $TSX Teeters On The Trendline

by Greg Schnell

Commodities blow out. I realize Gold breaking the bottom of the triangle is the big news of the day. As that is pretty obvious, I wanted to review oil as it just blew up on the PnF chart as well. This is the Oil chart which updates EOD. You can see the $81.00 price target has been there before the technical breakdown of support.   Here is OIL, the ETF. I had to use the 60 Minute chart to show the breakdown, but here it is. You can see the target price objective on this 60 Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Blackberry Drops The Line

by Greg Schnell

Life is tough as a phone maker these days. The smart phone market is very competitive. The world is watching to see if they can survive. This trendline was reistance in September /October and became support since.  This looks like a Head / Shoulders topping pattern to me. Today we lost support of the trendline and the 50 DMA. Next support would be the 200 DMA if BBRY can not close the week back above the trendline. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Toronto Touches Two Key Triggers

by Greg Schnell

Well, the $TSX found a place to bounce from today. What I like about this is we have a pattern called a backtest. It breaks out, pulls back to the neckline (usually horizontal but a downward slope works), and bounces from there.    As I was flipping through the charts for the CSTA meeting, I noticed the backtest. That is what makes saving your annotations so important. It can help you see things you might have missed.  If I had one concern, it did it on Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Checking The Heartbeat Of Europe - The Cappuccino Review

by Greg Schnell

After topping my coffee this morning, I started reviewing some charts. Some interesting charts in Europe needed more review. Lets work through them today. As an aside, one of my favorite paraphrases comes from Jim Cramer about the European markets. "I hate waking up in the morning and checking  on Europe. I have no network to check on the underlying." So why is it my favorite? Because most of us are not Goldman Sachs alumni, nor do we live in the Metro Manhattan area with rolodexes of hedge fund managers  and CEO's to check in with on the US underlying. Jims weakness is our Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Oil Price Springs A Leak

by Greg Schnell

$WTIC Crude bounced off the top trendline and is headed into a seasonal weakness. We will be looking for support at $92.50 and $91.00. What happens at those levels will be very important. You can see that $BRENT has made a substantially lower high. Both $GASO and $HOIL are breaking down as well. Time to be cautious. This is really important. $COPPER, $GOLD and $SILVER have all broken down. I see no reason for this chart to find support at the lower levels. But the market goes where it wants, not where I expect. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

There's Trouble in Toronto - Blown Away...

by Greg Schnell

Wow - the Canadian market spoke today. Down 260. We have been watching a sideways pattern for 3 months. Today wiped out the gains YTD and the $TSX moved into negative territory.   A couple of more significant events were confirmed today as well. 1) We failed at the 12800 level that we have been testing and talking about recently. 2) We failed to find support at the bottom of the range. 3) We failed to find support at the previous breakout from the 12500 range. Previous resistance should have become support. 4) We failed a Read More 

The Canadian Technician

When Safety Goes Ballistic

by Greg Schnell

Some of the charts lately have gone seemingly parabolic. The surprising thing is what sectors are going ballistic. Usually these are the slow and steady. This is the action since mid February. 30 trading days. The $SPX is up, but these sectors have outperformed the $SPX by at least 3%. What makes this particularly interesting is normally, when the cyclical stocks show seasonal weakness between April and July, the fund managers rotate into safety. When the dividend payers are already parabolic, will it still be safe to move into a sector like that? Check out some of Read More