DecisionPoint

March 2018

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: Is That a Reverse Flag?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week the market broke down from a rising wedge pattern and dove into a scary decline. This week was choppy and wild, but price stayed within a somewhat ragged range that looks to me like a bearish reverse flag formation... Read More 

DecisionPoint

New ST PMO BUY Signal for UUP - Sector Rotation On Defense

by Erin Swenlin

The Dollar has been poised for a breakout for some time. The PMO has been rising nicely, but UUP has been banging its head on overhead resistance with not much success... Read More 

DecisionPoint

SPX and XLF Trigger IT Trend Model Neutral on Friday and NDX Loses IT PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

After day with the SPX up 2.72% and the NDX up 3.78%, it may seem strange to be talking about the loss of BUY signals on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. My answer is that one day does not a bull market make... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Sixteen-Month BUY Signal Ends

by Carl Swenlin

This week the rising wedge we had identified resolved downward, as expected. Once that happened, we needed to provide a context that could help determine an initial downside target, so we focused on the double top confirmation line, drawn across the low between the tops... Read More 

DecisionPoint

Climactic Indicators Suggest Dead Cat Bounce Ahead - NDX and OEX Neutral Signals

by Erin Swenlin

Two more BUY signals were lost on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. We haven't seen the Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signals on the Scoreboards in over a year... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Bearish Double-Top on SPY - USO Breaks Out Big

by Erin Swenlin

Below you'll find the latest DP Scoreboards. I've included a Sector Scoreboard that Carl and I will keep updated for analysis of sector rotation. The NDX is the only Scoreboard index holding its own... Read More 

DecisionPoint

NDX Catches the Bearish Contagion - SPX Loses Both Short-Term BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

Just like dominos, the BUY signals on the DP Scoreboards are toppling and we're finally seeing some deterioration on the NDX. With Facebook (FB) and other technology stocks taking it on the chin the past few days, the NDX is finally succumbing to the downside pressure... Read More 

DecisionPoint

Dow Troubles: New IT Trend Model Neutral Signal - OEX Triggers ST Bearish Signals - Indicators Bearish

by Erin Swenlin

You'll note three BUY signals were lost today on the Dow and the OEX. The Industrials have been struggling. The Dow was unable to trigger a PMO BUY signal when the other three indexes had managed them with ease... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Bearish Rising Wedge Appears

by Carl Swenlin

First, the super high S&P 500 volume today was because of options expiration, so don't read anything else into it. Last Friday's encouraging breakout is looking like a short-term bull trap , as the market pulled back to the declining tops line support this week... Read More 

DecisionPoint

Dow's Weakness and DP Indicators Suggest Gloomy Short Term

by Erin Swenlin

It was only yesterday that I added a new BUY signal to the Dow's Scoreboard and today, it's already gone. The Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is based on 5/20-EMA crossovers. The Dow's 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while it was above the 50-EMA--that constitutes a Neutral signal... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: OEX & Dow Get New Buy Signals

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the OEX managed to get both a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal and a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. At the time the Dow was the only Scoreboard to not have ST buy signals. Today that changed with a new STTM Buy signal for the Dow... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Double Bottoms Abound

by Carl Swenlin

Friday was an exceptionally positive day, as prices advanced on good news regarding North Korea and jobs. Here are charts of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the 10 major sectors. The recurring theme we see is the double bottom... Read More 

DecisionPoint

SPX Scoreboard Adds Buy Signals - Is Correction Over?

by Erin Swenlin

Let's get that title question answered right now...No, I don't think the correction is over. Yes, today we got both a ST Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal and an ST Trend Model BUY signal. The chart still has problems... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Mixed Messages Warrant Caution

by Erin Swenlin

It's days like today that I find it frustrating to write (probably why this is posted late). It's not really writers' block, but the many mixed messages or lack of messages I'm getting on the charts right now... Read More 

DecisionPoint

Rydex Ratio Turns Down - Bullish Sentiment = Bearish Implications

by Erin Swenlin

I decided to take a look at the Rydex Ratio today to see what the daily assets might be telling us as far as "actual money" sentiment. Here's a refresher for those new to the Rydex Ratio and sentiment readings in general... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Breakout Fakeout and Broken Wedge

by Carl Swenlin

At last Friday's close we were faced with SPY pushing at the top of a bullish flag formation (not annotated). On Monday there was a strong breakout that proved to be a fakeout... Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: Scoreboards Lose BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

After deep declines today, the DP Scoreboards lost most of their short-term BUY signals. Rising wedges had appeared on the daily charts and today's decline confirmed it. The expectation is a breakdown from the wedge... Read More 

DecisionPoint

Monthly Chart Review of Major Indexes, Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds - Good, Bad & Ugly

by Erin Swenlin

The market has closed on the final day of February. This means that DecisionPoint monthly indicators have "gone final" which is the perfect time to review those signals and take a long-term view of the markets and the DecisionPoint "Big Four"- $USD, $GOLD, $WTIC & $USB... Read More