The Canadian Technician

Agrium (AGU.TO) Tries To Break The Downtrend

by Greg Schnell

Agrium has been a hard stock for investors. Breaking out and then breaking down. Recently testing under the 200 DMA, it started to show some positive divergence on the MACD and CMF. Today it sits at the top end of the range. A breakout here would be a nice trend change. A continuation down here would be a nice short trade. The RSI is in bear market signal mode currently on the daily.   On the weekly,  it looks pretty interesting. I like everything about it except the SCTR ranking is so weak. Lots of room to move up ? Why do I like it Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 8 - The US Dollar

by Greg Schnell

So, the US Dollar ($USD) is at the center of the currencies we covered. Lets look into the long term weekly to set the stage. First of all, the Weekly RSI is in bull mode since 2011 ! That is a substantial change as most other currencies had an RSI trend from the end of 2012. We can see the tight compression for the last year on the RSI is unmatched going all the way back on the chart. That is 35 years. So while the RSI is in bull mode, the currency has been tightly coiling in a very, very narrow range.  The large view on the $USD suggests the red line from 1987-1997 is Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 7 - The Euro

by Greg Schnell

Now for the largest European currency and it makes up over 1/2 of the US Dollar Index. The Euro ($XEU). This is arguably the most important chart in the group for the direction of the $USD. However, I think it is very important that we worked through all the other charts to see where they are because they are all at important support  or resistance lines. Starting with the long term Euro Chart, one thing stands out to me. There is a massive 6 year descending triangle forming. That is very important. The other way to think about it is the recent series of lower highs Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 6 - The Swiss Franc

by Greg Schnell

The Swiss Franc ($XSF) is an important currency in Europe. During the Greek crisis back in 2011, the Swiss Franc soared in the heat of the crisis. It immediately plummeted back. It was a goto currency in times of stress, but it also mimics some of the other European currencies. Let's look at the long cycle weekly first. We can see that the Swiss currency has become more valuable since the Y2K top in the equity markets. The Swiss Franc was in a down trend and reverted to an up trend at the turn of the century. There was some long term resistance marked at 88 based on the peak in Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 5 - The British Pound

by Greg Schnell

The British Pound ($XBP) is one of the world's most prominent currencies. With all the turbulence around the Scottish referendum only 2 months away, I might expect more weakness. I was pretty young when Quebec held a vote for separation from Canada in May 1980, but it embroiled the country for a long time. Investors were reluctant to invest in Quebec and in Canada. The British Pound charts look unaffected by the separation turbulence. Here is the long term weekly. The RSI has broken above the bear market level of 60, and looks very strong. Now, the price action is at the long term Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 4 - Swedish Krona

by Greg Schnell

The Swedish Krona (FXS) is a thinly traded currency with gaps all over the daily chart. However, because it is part of the dollar index it is also extremely sensitive and I like it as an early warning currency. This ETF started in 2006 so that is our maximum data range. Here is the weekly view. Here we can see the Swedish Krona has broken through a four year trend line. After tracking in a very tight range since October 2012, the stock has now declined below the lowest level in the 2 year range. Notice the 65 week moving average has turned down and we broke through the long term Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 3 - Canadian Dollar

by Greg Schnell

Well, the first two chapters had provocative charts that look set up for major moves. The Canadian Dollar ($CDW) looks ready to move as well. Once again, starting with the long term weekly chart, Lets study the RSI. The RSI has been in bear mode for the last 3 years since the 2011 commodity top. We can see it recently broke above the blue down trend but is still below the red line marking a bear market range. The Canadian Dollar does not respect the typical bear market ranges for RSI as nice as the Japanese Yen as an example, but we can still see the bull and bear market areas Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 2 - Australian Dollar

by Greg Schnell

Following on the back of Chapter 1, here are the charts for the Australian Dollar ($XAD). Here is the Long Term Weekly first. We can see the RSI is demonstrating a bear market. While everything is obvious in hindsight, the RSI is at that critical level. More on that when we zoom in on the weekly. One thing to note, in 1999, the RSI broke through the red 60 level but never got into the 70 level but that would have been a difficult period using the RSI. Where did price stall? Previous support based on the 1993 and 1997 lows.  With regards to price Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Important Time For Major Currencies - Chapter 1 - Japanese Yen

by Greg Schnell

The Currency markets are the early movers. The Japanese Yen ($XJY) is a very important global currency. I like to stay aware of major changes in the currencies to help me in the equities market. Lets roll through the 7 major currencies over the next few blogs. These are the crosses that make up the Dollar index. I'll go through the weekly first on each currency, then roll into the daily. Stage is set, now into the charts. Let's start in Japan with the Yen. The Yen is used for carry trades. Here is an example of a Yen carry trade from Investopedia: Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Wider View On West Texas Crude ($WTIC)

by Greg Schnell

Crude is a remarkable fluid which dominates world politics. We have recently seen Russia pushing into the neighbouring markets with Oil and Natural Gas and the rest of the world watches every deal. I want to spend some time reviewing West Texas Intermediate Crude ($WTIC) today and study the chart from a more broad based perspective. Trading in crude oil has been an active traders game.  Normally, we talk about the RSI staying above 40 or below 65. Here we have the RSI shooting from one extreme to the other. We can see the price relative (SPURS)  of $WTIC is keeping pace with the Read More